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The major averages are shy of 200-day simple moving averages

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The S&P 500 tested its 200-day simple moving average at 1264 on Wednesday without a close above that key level. The NASDAQ stayed shy of its 200-day at 2672. The Russell 2000 remains well below its 200-day at 768.67. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is back below its 50-day SMA at 2.058. Gold remains above its 50-day SMA at 1707.6. Crude oil remains above its 200-day at $96.02, but is stuck in the mud by my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The euro versus the dollar remains below its 50-day at 1.3605. For stocks, valuations are not as compelling as they were two months ago. The downside risk now exceeds the upside potential.
 
10-Year Note – (2.023) Daily, weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.120, 2.1325, 2.203, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2.058, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.672 and 1.602.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1744.8) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1469.9, $1644.8 and $1,356.5 with my quarterly pivot at $1738.4, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1789.1, $1808.4 and $1873.8, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The 50-day simple moving average is a support at $1707.6. The year’s low was $1535.0 set on September 26th.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($100.49) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with a monthly value level at $86.20, the 200-day simple moving average at $96.02, quarterly, monthly and annual pivots at $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and daily, weekly, semiannual risky levels at $103.98, $107.75, $103.93 and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as the Dow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3401) My quarterly value level is 1.2598 with a daily pivot at 1.3558, the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3605, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3944, 1.3953, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,196) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,945. Monthly, annual, and semiannual value levels are 11,794, 11,491, 9,635 and 8,468 with daily, quarterly, weekly, and annual risky levels at 12,725, 12,507, 12,650 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1261.0) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with annual and monthly value levels at 1210.7 and 1211.8, the 200-day at 1264.0, semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, and daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 1321.6, 1303.7, 1317.4 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58.
 
NASDAQ (2649) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with monthly, and annual value levels at 2588 and 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, the 200-day at 2672, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 2785, 2782 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2321) The YTD low is 2034.92 with a monthly value level at 2282, the 200-day at 2292, semiannual value levels at 1951 and 1861, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 2434, 2426, 2434 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42, and my annual risky level at 2590.
 
Dow Transports (4986) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with monthly and semiannual value levels at 4752, 4335 and 3868, the 200-day at 4986, and daily, annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 5288, 5179, 5294 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7th.
 
Russell 2000 (746.14) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with a monthly value level at 695.30, semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, the 200-day at 768.67, and daily, weekly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 796.73, 795.55, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.
 
The SOX– (377.41) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with a monthly value level at 343.57, an annual value levels at 270.98, the 200-day at 396.87 and daily, weekly and quarterly risky level at 400.38, 398.13 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.
 
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  • 72.2% of all stocks are undervalued / 27.8% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • Ten sectors are overvalued and six sectors are undervalued in a range from 11.1% undervalued to 11.5% overvalued. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
 
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Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
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Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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