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Stocks bent, but did not break as the debate rages on.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The Dow Industrial Average held its 50-day simple moving average at 11.944, while the other major averages stayed shy or their 50-day SMAs at; 1262.9 SPX, 2670 NASDAQ and 767.43 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is back below its 50-day at 2.069 as a sign of a flight to quality ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Gold is below its 50-day at $1709.9 with my semiannual pivot at $1644.8. Crude oil is between its 200-day SMA at $96.01 and my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The euro versus the dollar is trending below its 50-day SMA at 1.3600. Weak euro / weak commodities and lower yields correlate to lower US equities.
 
10-Year Note – (2.023) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2.069, a daily pivot at 1.999 and weekly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.923, 1.672 and 1.602.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1669.2) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1469.9, $1644.8 and $1,356.5 with my daily pivot at $1.89.6, and quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1738.4, $1766.0 and $1873.8, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The 50-day simple moving average is a support at $1709.0. The year’s low was $1535.0 set on September 26th.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($98.08) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with a monthly value level at $86.20, the 200-day simple moving average at $96.01, daily, quarterly, monthly and annual pivots at $99.07, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and weekly, semiannual risky levels at $105.72, $103.93 and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as the Dow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3183) My quarterly value level is 1.2598 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3259 and 1.3329, the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3600, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3953, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,021) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,944. Monthly, annual, and semiannual value levels are 11,794, 11,491, 9,635 and 8,468 with daily, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,112, 12,265, 12,507 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.
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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1236.5) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with annual and monthly value levels at 1210.7 and 1211.8, the 200-day at 1262.9, daily and weekly pivots at 1248.2 and 1257.5, semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58.
 
NASDAQ (2612) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with weekly, monthly, and annual value levels at 2593, 2588 and 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, the 200-day at 2670, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 2641 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2293) The YTD low is 2034.92 with monthly and weekly value levels at 2282 and 2249, the 200-day at 2291, semiannual value levels at 1951 and 1861, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 2319 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42, and my annual risky level at 2590.
 
Dow Transports (4907) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with monthly and semiannual value levels at 4752, 4335 and 3868, the 200-day at 4984, and daily, weekly, annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 4939, 5075, 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7th.
 
Russell 2000 (733.15) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with a monthly value level at 695.30, semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, the 200-day at 767.43, daily and weekly pivots at 738.18 and 748.86, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.
 
The SOX– (365.15) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with a monthly value level at 343.57, an annual value levels at 270.98, the 200-day at 395.56, daily and weekly pivots at 374.32 and 373.09, and quarterly risky level at 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are not as compelling fundamentally.
  • 74.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 25.5% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • Eight sectors are undervalued and eight sectors are overvaluied in a range from 13.0% undervalued to 10.2% overvalued. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
 
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Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”