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The SOX Tests A New Multi-Year High As The Major Averages Decline.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.810% on Monday vs. the Nov. 21 high at 2.839% and the Sept. 6 high at 3.007% with the 50-day simple moving average at 2.654%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.869% on Monday vs. the Nov. 21 at 3.938% tested the year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22 with the 50-day SMA at 3.733%. The weekly charts favor a higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.711% and 3.782%.

10-Year Note - (2.783) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.117 and 3.227 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.727, 2.712, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981.

30-Year Bond - (3.844) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4.006 and 4.807 with weekly, daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.796, 3.773, 3.487 and 3.014.

Comex gold has a negative but oversold daily chart with June 28 year to date low at $1179.4. The 50-day SMA is $1297.6 with the 200-day SMA at $1384.1. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1274.7.

Crude oil has a positive daily chart as oil popped above its 21-day SMA at $94.02 with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $97.94 and $98.47. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $96.64. The 200-week SMA at $92.02 held at last week's low of $91.77.

The euro vs. the dollar has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3566 and 1.3231. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at 1.3540. The 200-week SMA is 1.3309 held at the low on Nov. 7.

Comex Gold - ($1222.0) My monthly value level is $1062.1 with daily and weekly pivots at $1228.0 and $1261.4 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($96.10) My weekly value level is $88.51 with a daily pivot at $95.04 and monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $98.21, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

The Euro - (1.3591) My annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a weekly pivot at 1.3582 and daily, monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3671, 1.3840 and 1.4295.

Daily Charts: The Dow Industrial Average shifts to negative with a close below its 21-day SMA at 15,889. The S&P 500 shifts to negative on a close below its 21-day SMA at 1785.7. The Nasdaq remains positive but overbought with the 21-day SMA at 3966 and its Nov. 29 multi-year intra-day high at 4069.70. The Dow Transportation Average shifts to negative with a daily close below its 21-day SMA at 7143 after setting a new all-time intra-day high at 7304.49 on Dec. 2. The Russell 2000 remains positive but overbought with its 21-day at 1112.44 and its Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 1147.00.

Weekly Charts: Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,768. The S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1770.5. The Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3947. Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 7042. The Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1110.32.

Proprietary Analytics: My monthly value level is 6941 Dow Transports with monthly pivots at 16,093 Dow Industrials, 1820.2 S&P 500 and 1143.82 Russell 2000, and weekly and monthly risky at 16,435 Dow Industrials, 1855.7 S&P 500, 4101 and 4114 Nasdaq, 7487 Dow Transports and 1152.68 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops in December the risk is to my annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

Daily Dow: (15,915) Semiannual and annual value levels are 14,724 and 12,696 with a monthly pivot at 16,093, a daily risky levels at 16,153, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 16,174.51, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,435, 16,490 and 16,775.

S&P 500 - (1795.2) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a monthly pivot at 1810.2, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 1813.55, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1821.0, 1855.7 and 1853.8.

NASDAQ - (4037) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with a quarterly pivot at 4025, the Nov. 29 multi-year intra-day high at 4069.70, and weekly, monthly and daily risky levels at 4101, 4114 and 4123.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3479) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with a quarterly pivot at 3477, the Dec. 2 multi-year intra-day high at 3501.07, and monthly, daily and weekly risky levels at 3518, 3543 and 3544.

Dow Transports - (7184) Monthly and annual value levels are 6941, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 7200 and 7104, the Dec. 2 all-time intra-day high at 7304.49, and daily and weekly risky levels at 7331 and 7487.

Russell 2000 - (1123.78) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with my monthly pivot at 1143.82, the Nov. 29 all time multi-year intra-day high at 1147.00, and weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 1152.68, 1160.14 and 1163.21.

The SOX - (511.20) My annual value level is 338.03 with a weekly pivot at 511.29, the Dec. 3 multi-year intra-day high at 512.89, and quarterly, daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 514.87, 520.64, 526.74 and 533.56.

Dow Utilities: (487.98) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 484.38, 479.08 and 481.92 with weekly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 515.09, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

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