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The Technicals Are Deteriorating In An Overvalued Stock Market.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.882% on Thursday vs. the Sept. 6 high at 3.007% as the 50-day SMA rises to 2.681%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.899% on Thursday vs. its new 2013 high at 3.980% set on Friday as the 50-day SMA rises to 3.759%. The weekly charts favor higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.763% and 3.817%.

10-Year Note - (2.883) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.117 and 3.227 with a daily pivot at 2.890% and weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.739, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981.

30-Year Bond - (3.899) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4.006 and 4.807 with a daily pivot at 3.905 and weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.826, 3.487 and 3.014.

Comex gold shifts to a neutral daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1249.2, $1286.3 and $1372.0. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1266.0.

Crude oil has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $95.13, $97.19 and $98.62, which was tested at the high on Tuesday and Wednesday. The weekly chart is neutral with oversold momentum with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at $97.07. The 200-week SMA at $92.15 continues as strong support.

The euro vs. the dollar has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 1.3590. The weekly chart is positive with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 1.3597.

Comex Gold - ($1226.1) My monthly value level is $1062.1 with daily, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1252.9, $1284.9, $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($97.42) My weekly value level is $90.23 with my monthly pivot at $98.21 and daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $100.82, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

The Euro - (1.3751) My annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a weekly pivot at 1.3653 and daily, monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3872, 1.3840 and 1.4295.

Daily Charts: The Dow Industrial Average is negative with the 50-day SMA at $15,640 and the 21-day SMA at 15,959. The S&P 500 is negative with the 50-day SMA at $1759.8 and the 21-day SMA at 1795.1. The Nasdaq is negative with the 21-day SMA at 4007. The Dow Transportation Average is negative with 50-day SMA at 6998 and the 21-day SMA at 7171. The Russell 2000 is negative with the 50-day and 21-day SMAs at 1105.33 and 1119.94.

Weekly Charts: Dow Industrials shifts to neutral on a close today below its five-week MMA at 15,785. The S&P 500 shifts to neutral with a close today below its five-week MMA at 1774.0. The Nasdaq remains positive but overbought with a close today above its five-week MMA at 3998, but a close below last week's low at 4004.76 would be a weekly key reversal. Dow Transports shifts to neutral on a close today below its five-week MMA at 7059. The Russell 2000 shifts to neutral with a close today below its five-week MMA at 1110.61.

Proprietary Analytics: My monthly value level is 6941 Dow Transports with monthly risky levels at 16,093 Dow Industrials, 1810.2 S&P 500, 4114 Nasdaq and 1143.82 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly risky levels are 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

Daily Dow: (15,739) Semiannual and annual value levels are 14,724 and 12,696 with daily and monthly pivots at 15,762 and 16,093, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 16,174.51, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,430, 16,490 and 16,775.

S&P 500 - (1775.5) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1743.5 and 1348.3 with a daily and monthly pivots at 1781.8 and 1810.2, the Nov. 29 all-time intra-day high at 1813.55, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1864.5 and 1853.8.

NASDAQ - (3998) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with quarterly and daily pivots at 4025 and 4022, the Dec. 9 multi-year intra-day high at 4081.78, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 4177 and 4114.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3460) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with quarterly, daily and monthly pivots at 3477, 3489 and 3518, the Dec. 9 multi-year intra-day high at 3524.00, and daily and weekly risky levels at 3520 and 3616.

Dow Transports - (7059) Monthly and annual value levels are 6941, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual, quarterly and daily pivots at 7104, 7205 and 7029, the Dec. 2 all-time intra-day high at 7304.49, and a weekly risky level at 7563.

Russell 2000 - (1103.23) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with daily and monthly pivots at 1105.54 and 1143.82, the Nov. 29 all time intra-day high at 1147.00, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1154.47 and 1163.21.

The SOX - (505.84) My annual value level is 338.03 with daily, quarterly and weekly pivots at 512.71, 514.87 and 516.88, the Dec. 9 multi-year intra-day high at 518.97, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 526.74 and 533.56.

Dow Utilities: (478.70) Daily, monthly and semiannual pivots are 483.20, 479.08 and 481.92 with weekly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 503.80, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

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