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Watch key Dow levels at 12,312 and 12,478.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
If the Dow Industrials has a weekly close above my quarterly risky level at 12,478 the other major averages have room to trade up towards their quarterly risky levels at 1305.3 SPX, 2777 NASDAQ, 2422 NDX, 5448 Dow Transports, 829.03 Russell 2000 and 390.17 SOX. Tuesday’s high was a test of Dow 12,478. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 12,312 indicates risk to my monthly value level at 11,210. My annual pivot at 12,312 was crisscrossed on Thursday with a day’s low at 12,283. The other monthly value levels are; 1152.8 SPX, 2432 NASDAQ, 2185 NDX, 4443 Dow Transports, 646.71 Russell 2000 and 310.48 SOX. This is a volatility warning within the 2011 ranges. The yield on the 10-Year tested its 50-day at 1.999. Gold is testing its 200-day at $1627.0. Crude oil tested my zone of annual and semiannual risky levels at $103.58 and $104.84. The euro versus the dollar is below its semiannual pivot at 1.2980 with a 52-week low at 1.2773 versus my monthly pivot at 1.2780.
 
10-Year Note – (2.005) My annual value level is 2.502 with daily, weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.971, 1.906 and 1.903, and quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.687, 1.409 and 1.385.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1623.5) Daily, weekly, annual and annual value levels are $1579.5, $1578.0, $1575.8 and $1388.4 with semiannual risky levels at $1635.8 and $1659.5, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1706.7 and $1740.9.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($101.72) My semiannual and monthly value levels are $79.83 and $75.53 with a monthly pivot at $99.87, daily and weekly pivots at $102.68 and $102.23, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.2793) My quarterly value level is 1.2499 with monthly and weekly pivots at 1.2780 and 1.2723, daily and semiannual pivots at 1.2911 and 1.2980, and annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,416) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,012, 11,210, 8,425 and 8,336 with my annual pivots at 12,312, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,472, 12,478 and 14,032.
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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1281.1) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1221.8, 1152.8, 841.7 and 829.9 with a daily pivot at 1283.2, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1305.4, 1363.2 and 1562.9.
 
NASDAQ (2670) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2505, 2432, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2665, and annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2698, 2777 and 3232.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2349) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2191, 2185, 1851 and 1743 with daily and annual pivots at 2347 and 2300, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 2422 and 2603.
 
Dow Transports (5071) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 4922, 4443, 4407 and 3778 with a daily pivot at 5066, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 5448, 5861 and 6111.
 
Russell 2000 (752.28) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 711.85, 646.71, 572.90 and 510.81 with a daily pivot at 748.82, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 829.03, 836.15 and 969.09.
 
The SOX– (374.17) Weekly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 343.53, 310.48, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily pivot at 369.90, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 390.17 and 520.61.
 
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Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
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Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.