More New Highs As Additional Risky Levels Are Tested.

Dec. 26, 2013 5:08 PM ETTLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Banks, Homebuilders, chartest

Contributor Since 2006

I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on RealMoney.com and authored TheStreet.com Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for TheStreet.com in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.

The daily chart for the yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note favors higher yields with the 21-day SMA at 2.852% and the 2013 high yield at 3.007% set on Sept. 6 and was challenged with a test of 3% on Dec. 26. The daily chart for the US Treasury 30-Year bond is neutral with the 21-day SMA at 3.871% and the 2013 high yield at 3.980% set on Dec. 6. The weekly charts favor higher 10-Year and 30-Year yields given weekly closes above their five-week MMA at 2.827% and 3.837%.

10-Year Note - (2.992) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 3.071, 3.117 and 3.227 with a daily pivot at 2.978 and annual and quarterly risky levels at 2.476 and 2.252.

30-Year Bond - (3.923) Weekly, and monthly and semiannual value levels are 4.056, 4.006 and 4.807 with a daily pivot at 3.896 and quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.487 and 3.014.

Comex gold has a negative daily chart with the 21-day SMA at $1229.1 and the June 28 low at $1179.4. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1246.5.

Crude oil has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $97.00, $96.42 and $98.94. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at $97.81 and the 200-week SMA at $92.34.

The euro vs. the dollar has a neutral daily chart with its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3683, 1.3619 and 1.3290. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at 1.3627 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3311.

Comex Gold - ($1209.2) Daily, weekly and monthly value levels are $1184.7, $1148.3 and $1062.1 with quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($99.61) Monthly and weekly value levels are $98.21 and $93.76 with daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $100.78, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.

The Euro - (1.3690) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 1.3367, 1.3257, 1.2805 and 1.2477 with a daily pivot at 1.3663 and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3722, 1.3840 and 1.4295.

Daily Charts Are Positive / Overbought: The Dow Industrial Average is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,034, 15,836 and 15,263. The S&P 500 is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1802.2, 1782.3 and 1675.0. The Nasdaq is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4058, 3985 and 3625. The Dow Transportation Average is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7202, 7107 and 6542. The Russell 2000 is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1130.23, 1117.42 and 1031.37.

Weekly Charts Are Positive / Overbought: Dow Industrials remains positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,996 and its 200-week SMA at 12,750. The S&P 500 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1794.5 and its 200-week SMA at 1368.6. The Nasdaq is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 4027 and its 200-week SMA at 2911. Dow Transports is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 7152 and its 200-week SMA at 5303. The Russell 2000 is positive / overbought with its five-week MMA at 1127.31 and its 200-week SMA at 823.05.

Another day another set of new all-time or multi-year intra-day highs at 16,483.00 Dow Industrials above this week's pivot at 16,365 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775. The S&P 500 new high is 1842.84 above this week's pivot at 1831.8 with quarterly risky level at 1853.8. The Nasdaq new high is 4169.97. The Dow Transports new high is 7370.41 vs. its weekly pivot at 7338. The Russell 2000 new high is 1167.96 vs. its quarterly pivot at 1163.21. This week's value levels are 4090 Nasdaq and 1129.47 Russell 2000 with weekly pivots at 16,365 Dow Industrials, 1831.8 S&P 500 and 7338 Dow Transports. My monthly value level is 6941 Dow Transports with monthly pivots at 16,093 Dow Industrials, 1810.2 S&P 500, 4114 Nasdaq and 1143.82 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly pivots are 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 and 4025 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Semiannual and quarterly pivots / risky levels are 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. My annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

Daily Dow: (16,480) Weekly, monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16,365, 16,093, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Dec. 26 all-time intra-day high at 16,483.00, and daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,676, 16,490 and 16,775.

S&P 500 - (1842.0) Weekly, monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1831.8, 1810.2, 1743.5 and 1348.3 with the Dec.26 all-time intra-day high at 1842.84, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 1858.3 and 1853.8.

NASDAQ - (4167) Monthly, weekly, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 4114, 4090, 4025, 3759 and 3668 with the Dec. 26 multi-year intra-day high at 4169.97 and a daily risky level at 4205.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3585) Weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 3528, 3518, 3477, 3304 and 2463 with the Dec. 26 multi-year intra-day high at 3586.72 and a daily risky level at 3609.

Dow Transports - (7364) Quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 7205, 7104, 6941, 5925 and 5469 with a weekly pivot at 7338, the Dec. 26 all-time intra-day high at 7370.41, and daily risky level at 7435.

Russell 2000 - (1162.64) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1129.47, 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with monthly and quarterly pivots at 1143.82 and 1163.21, the Dec. 26 all time intra-day high at 1167.96, and daily risky level at 1179.33.

The SOX - (529.83) Quarterly and annual value levels are 514.87 and 338.03 with weekly and monthly pivots at 524.92 and 526.74, the Dec. 26 multi-year intra-day high at 530.96, and semiannual and daily risky levels at 533.56 and 540.02.

Dow Utilities: (487.12) Weekly, monthly and semiannual pivots are 480.37, 479.08 and 481.92 with daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 493.66, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.

To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

Recommended For You

Comments

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.