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A Key Level Gives Way On Dow Industrials After Dow Transports Sets Another New All-Time Intra-Day High At 7485.34.

Jan. 13, 2014 11:35 PM ETTLT, GLD, XLE
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Banks, Homebuilders, chartest

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2006

I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on RealMoney.com and authored TheStreet.com Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for TheStreet.com in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.

A flight to quality has US Treasury yields lower, gold higher and crude oil lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded below its monthly value level at 16,327 and tested its semiannual value level at 16,245.

The S&P 500 stayed below my monthly pivot at 1847.0 providing an early warning.

The Dow Transportation Average traded to a new all-time intra-day high at 7485.34 then ended the day between its monthly pivot at 7327 and its semiannual pivot at 7376.

US Treasury Yields - The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.829%) is below its 21-day SMA at 2.933% and tested its 50-day SMA at 2.815% with my quarterly risky level at 2.628%. The weekly chart will favor lower yields with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 2.859% with the 200-week SMA at 2.460%. My annual risky level is 2.263%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.773) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 3.888% and 3.843% and is below my quarterly pivot at 3.801%. The 30-Year bond will favor lower yields with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 3.835% with the 200-week SMA at 3.578%. My annual risky level is 3.283%.

Comex gold - ($1252.9) has a positive daily with the 21-day SMA at $1223.0, the 50-day SMA at $1250.4 and the 200-day SMA at 1335.1. The weekly chart is positive with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at $1246.3. My weekly value level is $1177.9 with my quarterly risky level at $1385.0.

Nymex crude oil - ($91.62) has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 50-day SMA at $95.55 and last week's low at $91.24. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $95.46 and the 200-week SMA at $92.52 as this average has been a magnet since mid-2009. My quarterly pivot at $93.35 should remain as a magnet.

The euro vs. the dollar - (1.3670) has a neutral daily chart with the 50-day SMA at 1.3612 and the 21-day SMA at 1.3682. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week at 1.3638 and the 200-week at 1.3311. My annual, quarterly and monthly pivots are 1.3382, 1.3482 and 1.3658 with a weekly risky level at 1.3816.


To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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