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New Highs Continue To Elude Dow Industrials And The S&P 500.

Jan. 23, 2014 8:45 AM ETTLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2006

I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on RealMoney.com and authored TheStreet.com Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for TheStreet.com in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.

The Nasdaq set a new multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 on Wednesday vs. monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4274. Dow Transports set a new all-time intraday high at 7554.97 as did the Russell 2000 at 1182.04 between a quarterly pivot and monthly risky level at 1180.35 and 1200.55.

Other risky levels still loom on strength: quarterly and semiannual at 16,761 / 16,860 Dow Industrials and my quarterly risky level at 1896 S&P 500.

Key levels have held to the downside: semiannual value level at 16,245 Dow Industrials on Jan. 14 and 7245 Dow Transports on Jan. 6 as a semiannual pivot was a magnet. On Wednesday Dow Industrials again held its monthly pivot at 16,327, as the S&P 500 stayed below its monthly pivot at 1847.0. Now we have a quarterly pivot at 1180.35 on the Russell 2000.

Below are semiannual value levels at 1797.2 / 1764.4 S&P 500, 3930 / 3920 Nasdaq and 1133.29 / 1130.79 Russell 2000.

Annual value levels are: 14,835 / 13,467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 / 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 / 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 / 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 Russell 2000.

US Treasury Yields - The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.863) remains on the cusp of its 50-day SMA at 2.844% with its 21-day SMA at 2.923% and a quarterly risky level at 2.628%. The weekly chart still favors lower yields with its five-week MMA at 2.857% and the 200-week at 2.455%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.760%) remains below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at 3.852% and 3.851% and is below my quarterly pivot at 3.801% with the 200-day at 3.575%. The weekly chart favors lower with its five-week MMA at 3.815% and 200-week at 3.573%.

Comex Gold - ($1241.8) has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1227.5, $1239.7 and $1325.2. The weekly chart stays positive with a weekly close above the 5-week MMA at $1245.4 with my quarterly risky level at $1385.0.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($96.73) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day and 50-day SMAs at $95.56 and $95.51 with the 200-day at $98.96. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a weekly close above its five-week at $96.06 with the 200-week at $92.61 and quarterly pivot at $93.35.

The Euro - (1.3539) has a neutral daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3637, 1.3634 and 1.3358. The weekly chart is negative with five-week at 1.3601 and 200-week at 1.3311.

Daily Dow: (16,373) has a neutral daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 16,424 with 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 16,144 and 15,426. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 16,250 and the 200-week at 12,865. My monthly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16,327, 16,245, 14,835 and 13,467 with the Dec. 31 all-time intraday high at 16,588.25 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,761 and 16,860.

S&P 500 - (1844.9) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day SMA at 1837.0 and the 50-day and 200-day at 1811.0 and 1698.8. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 1821.5 and the 200-week at 1382.3. My semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with my monthly pivot at 1847.0, the Jan. 15 all-time intraday high at 1850.84, and quarterly risky level at 1896.0.

NASDAQ - (4243) has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 4167, 4072 and 3704. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 4126 and the 200-week at 2948. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4267 and 4274.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3628) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3572, 3499 and 3179. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 3536 and the 200-week at 2543. My semiannual and annual value levels are 3458, 3456, 3078 and 2669 with a monthly pivot at 3629, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 3634.65 and quarterly risky level at 3714.

Dow Transports - (7549) has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 7390, 7261 and 6654. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 7333 and the 200-week at 5366. My semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 7376, 7245, 7327, 7086, 6249 and 5935 with the Jan.22 all-time intraday high at 7554.97.

Russell 2000 - (1181.29) has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1161.28, 1136.27 and 1050.13. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 1152.24 and the 200-week SMA at 832.91. My semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39 with a quarterly pivot at 1180.35, the Jan. 22 all-time intraday high at 1182.04, and monthly risky level at 1200.55.

The SOX - (547.47) has a positive daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 532.84, 518.66 and 484.38. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 527.77 and the 200-week SMA at 410.96. My semiannual and annual value levels are 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with quarterly, weekly and monthly pivots at 536.98, 544.30 and 544.70, the Jan. 22 multiyear intraday high at 547.92, and semiannual risky level at 548.36.

Dow Utilities - (497.72) has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 489.39, 490.09 and 494.73. The weekly chart is positive with the five-week MMA at 591.58 with the 200-week SMA at 447.60. My monthly value level is 440.53 with quarterly and annual pivots at 496.84 and 497.53 and semiannual and annual risky levels at 504.74, 524.37 and 548.70.

To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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