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The Dow Is Between Its Quarterly Pivots At 12,478 And 12,796.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
With the Dow Industrial Average below its quarterly pivot at 12,796 the daily chart is no longer overbought and there's risk to my other quarterly pivot at 12,478. A weekly close below 12,478 indicates risk to my monthly value level, which will be revised on Wednesday from 11,210 based upon today's monthly close. The S&P 500 provided the stability that led to the afternoon rebound for stocks - Closing above its quarterly pivot at 1305.4 after trading below it. The yield on the 10-Year note is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 and traded below my weekly pivot at 1.841 on Monday. Gold is above my quarterly pivot at $1740.9 this morning. Crude oil continues to trade around my quarterly pivot at $99.87. The euro versus the dollar is above my semiannual pivot at 1.2980 and its 50-day at 1.3067. A close below the 50-day should hurt US stocks as the dollar strengthens.

10-Year Note - (1.849) My daily and annual value levels are 2.027 and 2.502 with semiannual and weekly pivots at 1.903 and 1.841, and quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.687, 1.409 and 1.385.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1728.5) Semiannual, weekly, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1613.2, $1575.8, $1388.4 and $1559.1 with monthly and quarterly pivots at $1706.7 and $1725.5, and daily and quarterly risky levels at $1736.8 and $1740.9.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($98.94) Weekly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $96.94, $79.83 and $75.53 with quarterly and daily pivots at $99.87 and $97.94, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3128) Semiannual, weekly, monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2634, 1.2780 and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3284, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,654) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,210, 8,425 and 8,336 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,733 and 12,796, the May 2, 2011 high at 12,876, and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 12,797, 13,391 and 14,032.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1313.0) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1152.8, 841.7 and 829.9 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 1305.4 and 1314.1, and daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 1324.7, 1331.7, 1363.2 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

NASDAQ - (2812) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2758, 2698, 2432, 2012 and 1952 with daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 2832, 2849, 2894 and 3232. The May 2, 2011 high is 2887.75.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2465) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2422, 2412, 2300, 2185, 1851 and 1743 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2477, 2471 and 2603.

Dow Transports - (5322) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4443, 4407 and 3778 with a weekly pivot at 5309, and daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 5360, 5448, 5543, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 - (792.38) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 787.77, 646.71, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 800.82, 824.46, 829.03, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (408.74) Weekly, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 394.61, 390.17, 310.48, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 420.58, 423.32 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

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