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Daily Charts For The Dow And S&P 500 Show Declining MOJO

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
As an early warning for US stocks the daily charts for the Dow and S&P 500 show declining 12x3x3 daily slow stochastic readings and are thus no longer overbought. Daily closes above weekly pivots at 12,733 Dow and 1314.1 would negative this warning even in my scenario of a topping out pattern for stocks. The next warning comes when the Dow, SPX and NASDAQ close below my quarterly pivots at 12,478, 1305.4 and 2777 respectively. Dow Transports and Russell 2000 stayed below quarterly risky levels at 5448 and 829.03 for the entire month of January. The yield on the 10-Year note is below its weekly pivot at 1.841 with my semiannual pivot at 1.903. Gold is trading above my quarterly pivot at $1740.9 with my new monthly risky level at $1816.4. Crude oil is below my quarterly pivot at $99.87. The euro vs the dollar is above my semiannual pivot at 1.2980. LOOK FOR NEW MONTHLY LEVELS IN TODAY'S REPORT.

10-Year Note - (1.795) My semiannual and daily pivots are 1.903 and 1.888 with my annual value at 2.502. My weekly pivot is 1.841 with quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.687, 1.347 and 1.385.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1738.6) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1388.4 and $1559.1 with quarterly pivots at $1706.7, $1725.5 and $1740.9, and daily and monthly risky levels at $1758.8 and $1816.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($98.43) Weekly, monthly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $96.94, $85.62, $79.83 and $75.53 with quarterly and daily pivots at $99.87 and $97.86, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3076) Semiannual, monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2945, 1.2634 and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3195, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,633) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,749, 12,733 and 12,796, the May 2, 2011 high at 12,876, and weekly and annual risky levels at 12,758, 13,391 and 14,032.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1312.4) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 1305.4 and 1314.1, and daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 1317.7, 1331.7, 1363.2 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

NASDAQ - (2814) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2758, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 2820, 2849, 2894 and 3232. The May 2, 2011 high is 2887.75.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2468) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2466, 2471 and 2603.

Dow Transports - (5319) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with daily and weekly pivots at 5280 and 5309, and quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 5448, 5543, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 - (792.82) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 787.77, 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 800.13, 824.46, 829.03, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (408.94) Weekly, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 394.61, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 412.41, 423.32 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

ValuEngine Valuation Model - Stocks are not cheap enough to chase MOJO.
 

  • 67.7% of all stocks are undervalued / 32.3% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
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Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard Suttmeier
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