All five of the major equity averages are below their 21-day simple moving averages with declining daily momentum, which makes the daily charts negative. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000, which already have negative weekly charts are also below their 50-day SMAs.
Dow Industrials is below its quarterly pivot at 16462 and traded below its monthly pivot at 16297 but closed just above its semiannual value level at 16245. The S&P 500 stayed below its monthly risky level at 1895.6 and closed below its quarterly pivot at 1853.5. The Nasdaq stayed above its quarterly value level at 4039. Dow Transports stayed above its quarterly value level at 7407. The Russell 2000 is below its quarterly pivot at 1169.22 and traded below semiannual pivots at 1133.29 and 1130.79.
We still have semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 on the Nasdaq with semiannual pivots at 16245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 and 1764.4 S&P 500, 7376 and 7245 Dow Transports, and 1133.29 and 1130.79 on the Russell 2000, and the semiannual risky level at 16860 Dow Industrials. All pivots mentioned have been crossed at least once so far in 2014.
To confirm a market top there needs to be simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at 16256 Dow Industrials, 1850.0 S&P 500, 4203 Nasdaq, 7450 Dow Transports and 1165.28 Russell 2000. Only the Nasdaq and Russell have negative weekly charts.
If a stock market top is confirmed the risk is to the annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000.
Dow Industrials: (16246) Annual value levels are 14835 and 13467 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 16245 and 16297, quarterly and daily risky levels at 16462 and 16537, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 16772 and 16860.
S&P 500 - (1845.0) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a quarterly pivot at 1853.5, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28, and daily, monthly and weekly risky levels at 1880.6, 1895.6 and 1915.8.
NASDAQ - (4080) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with daily and weekly risky levels at 4177 and 4338, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3508) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3456, 3458, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3583 and 3695, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834.
Dow Transports - (7468) Quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with daily and weekly risky levels at 7675 and 7678, the April 3 all-time intraday high at 7715.91 and monthly risky level at 7812.
Russell 2000 - (1135.78) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39, with daily and quarterly pivots at 1169.82 and 1169.22, a monthly risky level at 1211.52, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82 and weekly risky level at 1224.32.
The SOX - (573.91) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with monthly and daily risky levels at 581.64 and 589.12, the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40 and weekly risky level at 606.78.
Dow Utilities: (529.65) Semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 524.37 and 528.10, and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 536.28, 542.83 and 548.70.
The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.700%) is below the convergence of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.728%, 2.712% and 2.717%. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 2.729% and its 200-week SMA at 2.412%.
The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.557%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.611%, 3.638% and 3.719. The weekly chart shows the bond yield between its five-week MMA at 3.631% and its 200-week SMA at 3.532%.
Comex Gold ($1298.3) is below its 21-day SMA at $1324.0 and between the "golden cross" of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1309.9 and $1296.6. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $1310.8 and the 200-week SMA at $1494.3. The golden cross is thus in a tug-of-war with the negative weekly chart.
Nymex Crude Oil ($100.44) is above its converged 21-day and 50-day SMAs at $99.83 and $100.17 and just below its 200- day SMA at $100.54. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at $100.33 and its 200-week SMA at $93.71.
The Euro (1.3742) is below its 21-day SMA at 1.3814, on the cusp of its 50-day SMA at 1.3736 and above its 200-day SMA at 1.3529. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at 1.3749 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3353.
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.