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The S&P 500 Is Poised To Set A New 52-week High

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
The S&P 500 ended last week between its annual pivot at 1363.2 and its May 2nd high at 1370.58. While the S&P is poised to set a new 52-week high the Dow Transports ended the week below its 50-day simple moving average at 5156. Hurting Transports is crude oil testing a new year to date high at $109.95. Stocks can stretch higher this week as my weekly risky levels at; 13,281 Dow Industrials, 1404.4 SPX, 3101 NASDAQ, 5427 Dow Transports and 864.51 Russell 2000. I would not view such a move as a new 'breakout" as this strength would still have the Dow Transports and Russell 2000 below all time highs; 5627.85 set on July 7th for Transports and 868.57 set on May 2nd for small caps. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is trading around 2.0%. Gold reached a year to date high at $1789.5 last week versus my monthly risky level at $1816.4.

10-Year Note - (1.976) My annual value is 2.502 with weekly and daily pivots at 2.034 and 1.990, and annual, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1.903, 1.874, 1.687 and 1.347.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1773.9) Quarterly, semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1725.5, $1740.9, $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with a daily pivot at $1780.4, and monthly and weekly risky levels at $1816.4 and $1854.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($109.68) Weekly, semiannual, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $105.24, $104.84, $103.58, $99.87, $85.62 and $79.83 with daily and annual risky levels at $110.10 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3449) Daily, weekly, semiannual, weekly, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3297, 1.3193, 1.2980, 1.2945, and 1.2499 with annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,983) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with quarterly and daily pivots at 12,796 and 12,986, and weekly and annual risky levels at 13,281 and 14,032.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1365.7) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1331.7, 1305.4, 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with annual and daily pivots at 1363.2 and 1365.5, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1404.4 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.

NASDAQ - (2964) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2849, 2777, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2963, and weekly and annual risky levels at 3101 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2604) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2471, 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily and annual pivots at 2604 and 2603, and my weekly risky level at 2721.

Dow Transports - (5139) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5054, 4522, 4407 and 3778 with weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5427, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 - (826.92) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily and quarterly pivots at 823.22, 824.46 and 829.03, and weekly and annual risky levels at 864.51, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (423.79) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 423.32, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 431.42, 460.92 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

ValuEngine Valuation Model - Sectors have shifted to Overvalued from Undervalued.
 

  • 54.9% of all stocks are undervalued / 45.1% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; eleven are overvalued by double-digit percentages. (10.3% OV to 27.0% OV) Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. -
  • PE Ratios range from 16.2 times for Multi-Sector Conglomerates to 43.3 times for Computer and Technology.
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ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report - In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C The January FDIC Report shows up-to-date analysis of the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to the housing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

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Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

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