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The Crowded Trade In Gold Collapses!

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
I have been warning that being long Gold during the recent run-up was a crowded trade. I talked about a potential "death cross" if gold failed. A close this week below $1727.0 will be a weekly key reversal. A trend below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1680.4 and $1668.6 will be a "death cross" when the 50-day falls below the 200-day. The 50-day has been above the 200-day since February 2009. In the stock market my monthly value levels for March rise to; 11,902 Dow Industrials, 1222.5 SPX, 2651 NASDAQ, 4470 Dow Transports and 684.13 Russell 2000. This is the downside risk in my prediction of a "Pop then Drop" stock market. Weekly risky levels remain at; 13,281 Dow Industrials, 1404.4 SPX, 3101 NASDAQ, 5427 Dow Transports and 864.51 Russell 2000. Dow Transports lag versus its 50-day simple moving average at 5177 and is well below its July 7th all time high at 5627.85. The Russell 2000 continues to be held back by quarterly and annual pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and 836.15 with its May 2nd all time high at 868.57. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is above its 50-day simple moving average at 1.942. Crude oil tested my semiannual pivot at $104.84. The euro versus the dollar shows a daily risky level at 1.3516.

10-Year Note - (1.976) My annual value is 2.502 with weekly and daily pivots at 2.034 and 1.982, and annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.903, 1.874 and 1.687.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1698.2) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with quarterly pivots at $1725.5 and $1740.0, and daily, monthly and weekly risky levels at $1774.5, $1853.4 and $1888.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($106.86) Semiannual, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $104.84, $103.58, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with a weekly pivot at $105.24, and daily and annual risky levels at $111.25 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3319) Weekly, semiannual, weekly, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3193, 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3516, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,952) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 13,032, 13,281 and 14,032.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1365.7) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9 with annual and daily pivots at 1363.2 and 1371.1, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1404.4 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ - (2967) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2960, and weekly and annual risky levels at 3101 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2623) Monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with annual and daily pivots at 2603 and 2617, and weekly risky level at 2721.

Dow Transports - (5153) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5064, 4470, 4407 and 3778 with weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5427, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 - (810.94) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily and quarterly pivots at 813.79, 824.46 and 829.03, and weekly and annual risky levels at 864.51, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (424.17) Daily, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 416.15, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with weekly and annual risky levels at 460.92 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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  • 57.3% of all stocks are undervalued / 42.7% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
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Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

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