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With Negative Daily Charts – Focus On 50-Day SMAs

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
In my Fearless Prediction of the Week I concluded, "It is possible that Transports and small caps drag down Industrials, SPX and NASDAQ." With negative daily charts, led by Monday's close for the NASDAQ, we are focusing on the 50-day simple moving averages. Transports are below its 50-day at 5195 with the 200-day at 4951. The Russell 2000 closed Tuesday below its 50-day at 792.12. This volatility is within my overall neutral zone; between my quarterly value levels at 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 SPX and 2777 NASDAQ and quarterly / annual risky levels at 5448 Dow Transports and 836.15 Russell 2000 around my annual pivot at 1363.2 S&P 500. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is on the cusp of its 50-day SMA at 1.948. Gold is at risk of a "death cross" where the 50-day SMA at $1689.6 falls below the 200-day SMA at $1673.8 for the first time since February 2009. Crude oil is on the cusp of my semiannual pivot at $104.84. The euro versus the dollar shows risk to my semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

10-Year Note - (1.951) My annual value is 2.502 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.953 and 1.956 and annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.903, 1.874 and 1.687.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1674.7) Daily, semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1665.9, $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1740.9, $1808.4 and $1888.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($104.88) Semiannual, annual, weekly, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $104.84, $103.58, $102.74, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with daily and annual risky levels at $105.86 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3113) Semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3207, 1.3534, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,759) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 12,873, 13,274 and 14,032.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1343.4) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9 with annual, daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1363.2, 1362.3, 1405.4 and 1562.9. A key negative would be a weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2.

NASDAQ - (2910) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 2959, 3102 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2589) Monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with my annual pivot at 2603, and daily and weekly risky levels at 2637 and 2715.

Dow Transports - (5047) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4470, 4407 and 3778 with daily, weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5110, 5403, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 - (787.13) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with a daily pivot at 789.45, quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and annual and weekly risky levels at 836.15 and 861.98. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (405.95) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 413.07, 459.41 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
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Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

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