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Some Daily Charts Are Now Negative - Others Remain Overbought

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
We have declining MOJO on the daily charts for the Dow Industrials, Dow Transports and Russell 2000, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ remain overbought. Dow Transports closed Thursday below its weekly pivot at 5246. The weekly chart for Dow Transports shifts to negative on a weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 5211. The weekly charts for the remaining major averages will remain overbought going into the end of the first quarter. The key annual levels that remain in play for the second quarter are my annual pivots at 1363.2 on the S&P 500 and 836.15 Russell 2000, which is the overall neutral zone. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury remains above its 200-day simple moving average at 2.204. Gold remains below its 200-day at $1681.9. Crude oil remains above my annual pivot at $103.58. The euro versus the dollar remains above its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3156.

10-Year Note - (2.280) Daily and annual value levels are 2.535 and 2.502 with weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 2.056, 1.903 and 1.687.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1642.5) Daily and annual value levels are $1605.9 and $1575.8 with semiannual pivots at $1659.5 and $1635.8, and quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1740.9, $1762.4 and $1888.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($105.42) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $103.58, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with semiannual and daily pivots at $104.84 and $106.12, and weekly and annual risky levels at $110.31 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3186) Semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with a daily pivot at 1.3153, and weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3461, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (13,046) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with a weekly pivot at 13,195, and daily and annual risky levels at 13,370 and 14,032. A close below the 21-day at 13,031 indicates risk to the 50-day at 12,862.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1392.8) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1363.2, 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9, and a weekly pivot at 1413.4, and daily and annual risky levels at 1429.1 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ - (3063) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 3138, 3128 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2732) Annual, monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2799 and 2772.

Dow Transports - (5221) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4470, 4407 and 3778 with a weekly pivot at 5246, and daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5424, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. Transports are on the cusp of its 50-day at 5237.

Russell 2000 - (821.43) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, my annual pivot at 836.15, and daily and weekly risky levels at 842.59 and 855.08. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011. A close below its 21-day at 818.63 indicates risk to the 50-day at 809.66.

The SOX- (434.53) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a weekly pivot at 437.07, and daily and annual risky levels at 449.38 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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Definition of MOJO - This is my term for technical momentum. I use what's called "12x3x3 slow stochastic readings" from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
 

  • Value Level - The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level - The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

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