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Friday’s Rebound Stayed Shy Of Key Levels From My Model

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
The Dow Transports stayed shy of last week's pivot at 5246, but did not close below its five-week modified moving average at 5211, so we wait another week to try to confirm 2012 highs for the major averages. The Russell 2000 stayed below its annual pivot at 836.15 after closing above that level last Monday, so that move was a false breakout. My overall neutral zone is between my annual pivots at 1363.2 on the S&P 500 and 836.15 Russell 2000. The key value level for this week is 5124 on the Dow Transports. This week's risky levels are 13,315 Dow Industrials, 1428.9 SPX, 3157 NASDAQ and 847.77 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury remains above its 200-day simple moving average at 2.204 and is influenced this week by a pivot at 2.248. Gold remains below its 200-day at $1681.9 with a weekly risky level at $1675.7. Crude oil remains above my annual pivot at $103.58 with this week's risky level at $110.42. The euro versus the dollar is influenced by this week's pivot at 1.3201.

10-Year Note - (2.237) Daily and annual value levels are 2.460 and 2.502 with a weekly pivot at 2.248, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.903 and 1.687.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1662.7) My annual value level is $1575.8 with daily and semiannual pivots at $1637.7, $1659.5 and $1635.8, and weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1675.7, $1740.9 and $1888.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($106.88) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $103.58, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with semiannual and daily pivots at $104.84 and $106.18, and weekly and annual risky levels at $110.42 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3266) Semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3303 and 1.3201, and annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (13,081) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 13,138, 13,315 and 14,032. A close below the 21-day at 13,035 indicates risk to the 50-day at 12,875.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1397.1) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1363.2, 1305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1405.4, 1428.9 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ - (3068) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2777, 2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 3089, 3157 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2729) Annual, monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2754 and 2810.

Dow Transports - (5218) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5124, 4470, 4407 and 3778 with daily, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5305, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. A weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 5121 shifts the weekly chart to negative.

Russell 2000 - (829.99) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 684.13, 572.90 and 510.81 with daily and quarterly pivots at 827.30 and 829.03, my annual pivot at 836.15, and weekly risky level at 847.77. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (435.70) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 441.68, 443.09 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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