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Small Caps Tried To Breakout On Friday But Failed.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE
The Russell 2000 opened above my annual pivot at 836.15 on Friday, but the move was short-lived. This attempt was the third failed try for a breakout in two weeks. We begin the second quarter with a neutral zone between annual pivots at 1363.2 on the S&P 500 and 836.15 on the Russell 2000. New quarterly value levels are 12,794 Dow Industrials, 1337.7 SPX and 2911 NASDAQ. My quarterly pivot is 829.34 on the Russell 2000. My quarterly risky level is 5420 on Dow Transports. We can still see new 52-week highs for Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but my prediction remains that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will continue to lag 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7th and 868.57 set on May 2nd. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury should continue to trade between my annual value level at 2.502 and semiannual risky level at 1.903. Gold is influenced by a semiannual pivot at $1635.8, which has been a strong magnet year to date. A weekly close below $1635.8 indicates risk to my annual value level at $1575.8. For crude oil we need weekly closes above a new quarterly value level at $101.55. The euro versus the dollar will be influenced by a quarterly pivot at 1.3366.

10-Year Note - (2.216) Weekly and annual value levels are 2.276 and 2.502 with daily, semiannual, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2.092, 1.903, 1.407 and 1.306.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold - ($1667.5) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1635.8 and $1575.8 with daily, weekly and semiannual pivots at $1681.2, $1673.4 and $1659.5, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1763.7 and $1871.9.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil - ($103.09) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $101.55, $97.55 and $79.83 with annual and semiannual pivots at $103.58 and $104.84, daily, weekly and annual risky levels at $105.12, $112.64 and $117.00.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro - (1.3341) Semiannual and monthly value levels are 1.2980 and 1.2529 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 1.3368, 1.3345 and 1.3366, and annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (13,212) Daily, quarterly, monthly, and annual value levels are 13,138, 12,794, 12,469 and 12,312 with a weekly pivot at 13,220 and annual risky level at 14,032.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 - (1408.5) Annual, quarterly and monthly value levels are 1363.2, 1337.7, 1286.2 with daily and weekly pivots at 1405.1 and 1416.9 and annual risky level at 1562.9.

NASDAQ - (3092) Quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 2911, 2770 and 2698 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 3111, 3114 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2755) Quarterly, annual, monthly and annual value levels are 2608, 2603, 2507 and 2300 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2774 and 2799.

Dow Transports - (5253) Daily, weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5235, 5082, 4748 and 4407 with quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5420 and 5861. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. A weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 5219 shifts the weekly chart to negative.

Russell 2000 - (830.30) Weekly and monthly value levels are 815.36 and 726.19 with quarterly, daily and annual pivots at 836.22, 829.34 and 836.15. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX- (438.64) Weekly, quarterly and monthly value levels are 431.47, 416.01 and 397.34 with a daily pivot at 440.24 and annual risky level at 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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