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Transports Stabilize With Small Caps Below 836.15.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower again on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 9,768 - down 0.53% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 20,593 - down 0.95%.European stocks continued lower on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 ended their session at 5,704 - down 2.30% on the day. The DAX ended their session at 6,784 - down 2.84% on the day. The CAC 40 ended their session at 3,313 - down 2.74% on the day. European stocks were lower again Thursday morning. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined from 2.306 percent to 2.221 on Wednesday and is testing its 200-day simple moving average at 2.169 this morning. On Wednesday, ADP reported that the private sector added 209,000 jobs in March. Nonmanufacturing ISM came in slightly below estimates at 56.0 in March as the prices paid component remains elevated at 63.9. Gold declined from $1649.5 the Troy ounce to $1613.0 on Wednesday well below its 200-day simple moving average at $1687.7. Crude oil declined from $104.12 per barrel to $101.08 below its 50-day simple moving average at $103.82. The euro versus the dollar declined from 1.3238 to 1.3110 on Wednesday and traded as low as 1.3060 this morning, below its 50-day SMA at 1.3216. The Dow Industrial Average declined to 13,020.86 on continued concerns about monetary policy. A close below the 50-day SMA 12,970 will confirm that the Dow has peaked at its 52-week high at 13,297.11 set on April 2nd. The NASDAQ's declined to 3052.58 on Wednesday versus the 52-week high at 3134.17 set on March 27th. A close below the 21-day SMA at 3059 shifts the daily chart to negative.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

  1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested its 200-day simple moving average at 2.169 this morning as yields are reluctant to rise.
  2. Commodities - A close today below my semiannual pivot at $1635.8 indicates risk to my annual value level at $1575.8. Keep in mind that if the 50-day SMA at $1706.1 falls below the 200-day at $1687.7 we have a "death cross". For Crude oil a weekly close below my quarterly value level at $101.55 indicates risk to this month's value level at $97.55. My annual and semiannual pivots are $103.58 and $104.84.
  3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar is between my semiannual value level at 1.2980 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3216.
  4. Equities - This could be the third week in a row where the Russell 2000 traded above my annual pivot at 836.15 on a Monday, but failed to have a weekly close above 836.15. My quarterly value levels are 12,794 Dow Industrials, 1337.7 SPX and 2911 NASDAQ. My quarterly and annual pivots are 829.34 / 836.15 on the Russell 2000 and 1363.2 SPX. My quarterly risky level is 5420 on Dow Transports. My prediction remains that Transports and Russell 2000 will lag 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7th and 868.57 set on May 2nd even with additional new 52-week highs on the other major averages.

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