Markets in Review: On Monday the Nikkei 225 lost another 1.47% ending that session at 9,546. This morning the Nikkei lost just 0.09% to 9,538. The Hang Seng and the European exchanges were closed on both Friday and Monday with the Hang Seng down 1.15% this morning to 20,356. European stocks opened lower this morning. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury market declined to 2.017 percent on the Monday on a hangover from the weak employment report released on Good Friday. Gold did not trade on Friday, and rebounded from $1636.7 the Troy ounce to $1649.9 on Monday and to $1655.9 this morning versus my weekly pivot at $1651.1, and below its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages converging at $1689.4 and $1700.8 getting closer to a "death cross".. Crude oil did not trade on Friday, and traded down to $100.81 per barrel on Monday then up to $102.82 trending below its 50-day simple moving average at $104.04. The euro versus the dollar declined to 1.3038 on Monday then rebounded to 1.3143 this morning staying below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3212. The Dow Industrial Average, Dow Transportation Average and Russell 2000 closed below their 50-day simple moving averages at 12,980, 5244 and 820.84 respectively.
Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
- Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury moved below its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages at 2.155 and 2.067 with my semiannual pivot at 1.903.
- Commodities - For gold my semiannual pivot at $1635.8 remains a strong magnet. If the 50-day SMA at $1700.8 falls below the 200-day at $1689.4 we have a "death cross". Crude oil traded below my quarterly pivot at $101.55 but snapped back, with my annual and semiannual pivots at $103.58 and $104.84.
- Currencies - The euro versus the dollar remains between my semiannual value level at 1.2980 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3212.
- Equities - If Industrials, Transports and Small Caps stay below their 50-day SMAs the risk is to the 50-day SMAs at 1371 SPX and 2985 NASDAQ. My quarterly value levels are 12,794 Dow Industrials, 1337.7 SPX and 2911 NASDAQ. My quarterly and annual pivots are 829.34 / 836.15 on the Russell 2000 and 1363.2 SPX. My quarterly risky level is 5420 on Dow Transports. My prediction remains that Transports and Russell 2000 will lag their 2011 all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7th and 868.57 set on May 2nd even with additional new 52-week highs on the other major averages.
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