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Will The Weekly Charts Be Negative At Today’s Closes?

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were mixed on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 9,561 - down 0.28% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 21,011 - up 0.07% on the day. European stocks, which closed lower on Thursday, are relatively flat at 6:00 AM this morning. The FTSE 100 ended Thursday at 5,745 - down 0.01% on the day. The DAX ended Thursday at 6,671 - down 0.90% on the day. The CAC 40 ended Thursday at 3,174 - down 2.05% on the day. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined from 2.000 percent to 1.947 on Thursday below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 2.083 and 2.112. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 386,000, higher than expected and still above the 350,000 recessionary threshold. Most in the financial media tout that claims below 400,000 is a positive sign, but in my opinion that notion is incorrect. Existing Home Sales declined 2.6% in March to an annual rate of 4.48 million, below expectations. Gold declined from $1647.9 the Troy ounce to $1631.3 testing my semiannual pivot at $1635.8 for the 12th time year to date. This support has thus held below the "death cross" defined by the 50-day simple moving average at $1687.0 being below the 200-day simple moving average at $1695.3. Crude oil declined from $103.21 per barrel to $101.67 on Thursday, staying below its 50-day simple moving average at $104.75. The euro versus the dollar is trading just below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3202. The Dow Industrial Average ended Thursday below its 50-day simple moving average at 13,009. The NASDAQ also ended Thursday below its 50-day simple moving average at 3011.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

  1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is still between its 50-day simple moving average at 2.083 and my semiannual pivot at 1.903.
  2. Commodities - Gold continues to trade between my semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4, and below the 50-day / 20-day SMA "Death Cross" at $1687.0 and 1695.3. Just because there's a death cross does not mean that you can't profit from buying gold at $1635.8 - This strategy has worked at least ten times year to date. Crude oil remains influenced by quarterly, annual and semiannual pivots at $101.55, $103.58 and $104.84 with my monthly value level at $97.55.
  3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar remains between my semiannual value level at 1.2980 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3202.
  4. Equities - Closes today below five-week modified moving averages at 12,964 Dow Industrials, 1375.7 SPX, 3003 NASDAQ, 5228 Dow Transports and 812.71 Russell 2000 will provide technical downgrades to weekly charts. We may have to wait another week on SPX & NASDAQ as they could remain overbought for another week. A weekly close on the S&P 500 below my annual pivot at 1363.2 would be another negative for stocks.
  5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks are reasonably priced with 62.7% of all stocks undervalued with six undervalued sectors and ten overvalued sectors. Aerospace is 12.6% UV with Computer & Technology 11.8% OV, Medical 12.4% OV, and Retail-Wholesale is 12.3% OV.

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