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Key Levels When Reacting To The April Nonfarm Payrolls Report

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

Markets in Review: The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury traded between 1.912 percent and 1.956 on Thursday staying below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 2.076 and 2.067. Freddie Mac's 30-Year fixed rate mortgage fell to a record low at 3.84. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 365,000 still above the 350,000 recessionary threshold. Nonmanufacturing ISM fell to 53.5 in April. Gold declined from $1654.3 the Troy ounce to $1631.3 still below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1671.0 and $1698.6. Crude oil traded down from $105.42 per barrel to $102.36 below its 50-day simple moving average at $105.19. The euro versus the dollar traded between 1.3103 and 1.3178 below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3204. The Dow Industrial Average traded up to 13284.09 then declined to 13,175.64 staying below its year-to-date high set at 13,338.66 on May 1st. The NASDAQ traded down from 3061.38 to 3016.20 staying below its March 27th high at 3134.17.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

  1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury remains influenced by my semiannual pivot at 1.903. The 50-day SMA is 2.076 with my monthly risky level at 1.734.
  2. Commodities - Gold remains under the influence of my semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4. My weekly value level is $1612.0 with the 50-day at $1671.0. Crude oil remains influenced by quarterly, semiannual and annual pivots at $101.55, $104.84 and $103.58.
  3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar remains above my semiannual value level at 1.2980 with my weekly pivot at 1.3180 and quarterly risky level at 1.3366.
  4. Equities - Watch these levels as stocks react to the Employment Data this morning. The Dow Industrials is between my quarterly value level at 12,794 and my monthly risky level at 13,354 with this week's pivot at 13,210. The S&P 500 is below my monthly pivot at 1397.0 with my annual value level at 1363.2, and weekly risky level at 1415.8. The NASDAQ is below my monthly pivot at 3041 with my quarterly value level at 2911 and weekly risky level at 3120. Dow Transports is below my monthly risky level at 5386, and well below its July 7, 2011 all time high at 5627.85. The Russell 2000 is below my monthly pivot at 813.56 with the all time high of 868.57.
  5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remains reasonably priced fundamentally with 61.2% of all stocks undervalued with six undervalued sectors and ten overvalued sectors. Aerospace is 11.5% UV, Autos-Tires-Trucks 10.7% UV, Computers & Technology 10.8% OV, Finance 10.5% OV, Medical 13.4% OV, and Retail-Wholesale 13.4% OV.

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