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SPX Opened Below My Annual Pivot At 1363.2 Then Failed There.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), XLE

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower again on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 9,010 - down 0.39% on the day. The Hang Seng ended their session at 20,227 - down 0.51% on the day. European exchanges were mixed on Wednesday and are modestly lower this morning at 6:00 AM. The FTSE 100 ended Wednesday at 5,525 - down 0.53%. The DAX ended Wednesday at 6,465 - up 0.31%. The CAC 40 ended Wednesday at 3,119 - down 0.20%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is trading at 1.858 percent this morning with a 30-Year bond auction this afternoon. Gold is trading between $1586.3 the Troy ounce and $1598.0 within Wednesday's range. Crude oil is trading on the cusp of its 200-day simple moving average at $96.28 this morning. The euro versus the dollar is trading below my semiannual pivot at 1.2980. SPX opened Wednesday below my annual pivot at 1363.2 then failed at that level on afternoon strength.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

  1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is between my semiannual pivot at 1.903 and this month's risky level at 1.734. The low yield was set at 1.671 back on Sept 23rd.
  2. Commodities - For Gold my annual and monthly value levels are $1575.8 the Troy ounce and $1525.8 with my weekly pivot at $1590 and my semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4. The 50-day and 200-day SMA "Death Cross" is at $1656.8 and $1698.7. For Crude oil my semiannual value level is $79.83 with the 200-day SMA at $96.28 and my weekly pivot at $98.72 and quarterly risky levels at $101.55.
  3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with my semiannual pivot at 1.2980 and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.3232 and 1.3366.
  4. Equities - A weekly close on Dow Industrials below 13,033 shifts the weekly chart to negative with my quarterly pivot at 12,794 and annual value level at 12,312. A weekly close below my annual pivot at 1363.2 is negative. A weekly close below 2911 on the NASDAQ would be another negative. A weekly close below 5236 on Dow Transports would be negative. My bearish warning for the past two months was based upon Dow Transports and Russell 2000 staying below all time highs at 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011 and 868.57 set on May 2, 2011.
  5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 67.2% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. Five sectors are undervalued with eleven overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks is 18.0% UV and Basic Materials is 13.6% UV.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D