The Major Equity Averages Straddle 200-Day Moving Averages.

May 19, 2012 12:00 PM ETTLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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Banks, Homebuilders, chartest

Contributor Since 2006

I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on and authored Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were lower on Friday. The Nikkei 225 ended Friday at 8,611 - down 2.99%. The Hang Seng ended Friday at 18,952 - down 1.30%. European exchanges were also lower on Friday. The FTSE 100 ended Friday at 5,267 - down 1.33%. The DAX ended Friday at 6,271 - down 0.60%. The CAC 40 ended Friday at 3,008 - down 0.13%. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury traded down to 1.692, approaching the September 23, 2011 low yield at 1.671. Gold traded as high as $1597.5 the Troy ounce to $1597.5 after holding my monthly value level at $1525.8 and taking out my annual pivot at $1575.8. Crude oil traded down to $90.93 per barrel well below its 200-day simple moving average at $96.24. The euro versus the dollar traded as low as 1.2646.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:

  1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with a monthly pivot at 1.734, the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671 and weekly risky level at 1.635.
  2. Commodities - Gold has a monthly value level at $1525.8 the Troy ounce with an annual pivot at $1575.8, a weekly pivot at $1596.6, and semiannual risky level at $1635.8. For Crude oil I show a weekly pivot at $91.62 with the 200-day SMA at $96.24.
  3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.2842 and 1.2980.
  4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is below weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,692 and 12,794 with my annual value level at 12,312 and the 200-day at 12,199. The S&P 500 is below weekly, quarterly and annual pivots at 1329.9, 1337.7 and 1363.2 with the 200-day at 1278.2. The NASDAQ is below my quarterly pivot at 2911 with the 200-day at 2742, and my annual value level at 2698. Dow Transports is down 2.9% YTD and closed Friday below its 200-day at 4931 with my semiannual value level at 4407 and weekly risky level at 5083. The Russell 2000 closed Friday below its 200-day at 753.20 with a semiannual value level at 572.90, and weekly risky level at 759.03. Another negative is that Transports and Small Caps, the leaders in 2011, are the first to fall below 200-day SMAs.
  5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 77.6% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.80%. Eleven sectors are undervalued with five overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 25.7% UV, Basic Materials - 22.4% UV, Oils-Energy - 16.0% UV, Business Services - 12.0% UV, and Consumer Discretionary - 11.3%.

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