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The Power of the Pivots

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The 30-Year Treasury auction was well bid, but traded weaker after the auction, which pulled the 10-Year yield well above Wednesday’s auction level. Gold is consolidating gains to Tuesday’s all time high at $1254.5. The euro is poised for an oversold rally that could test my quarterly pivot at 1.2450. Crude oil breaks the trading range to the upside so watch my annual pivot at $77.05. The Power of the Pivots gets the NASDAQ to 2215.
 
US Treasury Yields –Yesterday’s 30-Year bond auction was bid strongly as the US Treasury sold $13 billion at 4.182% with the issue trading above that yield after the auction. The bid to cover was strong at 2.78 times and the Indirect Bid was 36%, within my 30% to 40% neutral zone. For the 10-Year, quarterly support is 3.467 with today’s resistance at 3.235. The range on the daily chart appears to be from the 200-day simple moving average at 3.55 and the year to date low yield at 3.05.
 
Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – A close below the 21-day simple moving average at $1216.3 indicates risk to the 50-day simple moving average at $1184.1. Gold is consolidating Tuesday’s new all time high at $1254.4. Semiannual support is $1186.5 with monthly resistances at $1265.9 and $1277.4.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil shows rising MOJO on its daily chart with the 200-day simple moving average at $76.75. Today’s support is $72.75 with my annual risky level at $77.05.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – shows oversold MOJO on its daily chart, as the euro stays above this week’s support at 1.1863. Quarterly and monthly resistances are 1.2450 and 1.2679.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow:The Dow could not take out its 200-day simple moving average at 10,299 (now 10,310) last week. MOJO is rising making the daily chart neutral. The 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are resistances at 10,234, 10,665 and 10,310. It seems that the April 26th high at 11,258 ends the bear market rally since March 2009, and starts the second leg of the multi-year bear market. We need a weekly close above my annual pivot at 10,379 to extend the rally next week.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
 
 
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
(800) 381-5576
 
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample issues of my research.
 
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