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Will the FOMC state the reasons for “Unusual Uncertainty”?

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
“Unusual Uncertainty” has the yield on the 10-Year below my annual pivot at 2.999 and testing my annual risky level at 2.813. “Unusual Uncertainty” has gold back above $1,200 the Troy ounce. “Unusual Uncertainty” has crude oil above monthly and annual pivots at $80.02 and $77.05. The euro should peak between daily and weekly risky levels at 1.3362 and 1.3533. The Dow should peak below the May 13th high of 10,920. The Economy on the Road!
 
10-Year Note – (2.824) My annual pivots are 2.999 and 2.813 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2.802 and 2.726. Semiannual and monthly value levels are 3.479 and 3.601 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1202.3) Weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are $1194.2, $1140.9, $1133.2 and $1115.2 with semiannual and daily pivots at $1218.7 and $1,222.0, and my semiannual risky level at $1260.8.        
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($81.50) Monthly and annual value levels are $80.02 and $77.05 with weekly, semiannual and daily risky levels at $81.84, $83.94 and $85.12. My quarterly value level is $56.63.   
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3229) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1486 and 1.1424 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3362, 1.3533 and 1.4733.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (10,699) Monthly, weekly and annual value levels are 10,439, 10405 and 10,379 with a semiannual pivot at 10,558, a daily risky level at 10,758, and monthly risky level at 11,045. My quarterly value level is 7,812. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01.
This test marked the end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Economy on the Road - I was on the road north from Land O’ Lakes Florida this weekend and make the following observations about the US Economy.
  • Truck Traffic – Lighter than in both March and May. I guess businesses have nearly finished restocking inventories. It may be because it was Saturday / Sunday but I only saw one FedEx truck and no UPS trucks. These were heavy on my May trip. Many rental trucks heading north with vehicles attached.
  • RV Traffic – Very few RV travelers, less than March and May.
  • Vacationers – Light to moderate in both directions, which is surprising as the first two weeks of August are usually strong vacation weeks.
  • Motels – Many reported full on Friday and Saturday, but not on other days. Local Events.
  • Billboards – The same number of empty boards on the road as in March and May.
  • Shovel Ready Projects – No new roadwork on I 75 and I 10 in Florida and on I 95 North through Richmond. All projects in the works were started before the president’s $788 billion stimulus package.
  • Gasoline – Between $2.599 and $2.799. There was a shortage of regular gas in the Carolinas.
  • In conclusion the trip shows that the economy on the road appeared stronger in March and May than it does in August, but not to the extent where the Fed should increase its meddling.
 
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
(800) 381-5576
 
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample issues of my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”


Disclosure: No Positions