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The Dow Returns to My Annual Pivot at 10,379

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury continues to trade between my annual value level at 2.813 and my quarterly risky level at 2.495. Gold tests $1262.3, which is between my semiannual pivot at $1260.8 and my monthly risky level at $1263.8. Crude oil continues to trade between its August 25th low at $70.76 and my annual pivot at $77.05. The euro is between its August 24th low of 1.2591 and its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2842, which is a negative for stocks. The major equity averages still straddle monthly pivots at 10,164 on Dow Industrials, 1074.9 S&P 500, 2196 NASDAQ, 4364 Dow Transports and 652.82 on Russell 2000. The Transports are back below its monthly pivot. The Dow has trouble with its 50-day at 10,451.
10-Year Note – (2.609) My annual value levels are 2.813 and 2.999 with a daily pivot at 2.639 and monthly, weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.562, 2.507, 2.495 and 2.249.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1257.2) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are $1223.7, $1218.7, $1140.9 and $1115.2 with a daily pivot at $1254.2, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1257.5, $1260.8 and $1263.8. Note that gold is still overbought on its daily chart.        
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil ($73.75) Quarterly value level is $56.63 with my monthly pivot is $74.45, and daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at $75.37, $76.76, $77.05 and $83.94.   
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.2698) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1721 and 1.1424 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.2833, 1.3168 and 1.4733.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (10,341) Monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,164 and 7,812 with daily and annual pivots at 10,358 and 10,379, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 10,515, 10,558 and 11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01. The 50-day simple moving average is 10,271 with the 21-day at 10,275, and 200-day simple moving average as resistance at 10,451, which was tested on Friday.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
(800) 381-5576
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