"Charts: 'The S&P And Don't Fight The FED" See Yahoo Article.

Jul. 29, 2012 11:15 AM ETIWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY
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Newsletter Contributor, ETFs, Emini Futures, Large Cap, Commodity, Metals, Oil, FX

Contributor Since 2011

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the President and Founder of ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS. He is also the Chief Architect of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm, and the Senior Developer of the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST Active Advanced Position and Risk Management Trade Technology, and Active Advanced Position and Risk Management Capital Gain Optimization Methodology.

https://advancevest.com/kevinjohnbradfordwilbur.html

Kevin is a prize-winning Economist (Governor's Fellow) and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets. 

Kevin received his Masters Degree in Economics from George Mason University, where he also served as the President of the Theta Chapter of Omicron Delta Epsilon, The International Economic Honorary. At GMU, Kevin was awarded The Virginia Graduate Scholarship, and also served prestigiously as a Governor's Fellow in Economics. 

Kevin also attended The USDA Graduate School, where also excelling, he focused on Commodity Price and Program Management Techniques in service to US National Interests. With economic security clearances at USDA, Kevin served within the Agricultural Policy Analysis Group at ERS (Economic Research Service) and within Program Administration Divisions at ASCS (Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service). He also served to support CCC (Commodity Credit Corporation) economic forecasts, CCC commodity price discovery and stabilization efforts, and CCC contract awards. While at USDA, Kevin was awarded the Federal Certificate of Merit Service Award for his contributions and service to the National Interest at a time of peak need. 

Kevin has served as Founder, President, Senior Market Analyst and Senior Market Strategist of ProtectVEST And AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST, Divisions of Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots, Bradford Market Research and Analytics, KBW Enterprises.* 

In forecasting and anticipating the market crash of 2008 and 2009 beforehand in 2007, Kevin enabled prepared parties the prevention of significant equity value loss those years. And his subsequent market forecast of the following March 2009 major market lows proved equally as 'valuable.' (Kevin forecasted and identified the March 10, 2009, 're-entry point' to the day). 

In 2010 Kevin went on to successfully forecast and identify the subsequent intermediate-term market top of mid-April enabling high market price level insurance locks. He also forecasted and identified the early September re-entry point later that year, for the re-introduction of powerfully productive full net long and double-long market exposures. 

In 2011 Kevin's market forecasts continued with truly remarkable and outstanding results, and his market-timed Alerts guided to an amazing 130 percent annual increase on a Dow 30 Industrials Composite Average Price Equivalency Basis that year! 

In 2012 Kevin's market forecasts were even more impressive, with the MDPP Model forecasting over triple the effective returns of 2011! Kevin made and issued pivotal forecasts for the Major Market Large Cap Stock Indexes, the Gold Metals Markets, and the North American Crude Oil Markets (his three select and primary foci) with further outstanding results and success.

Interest in Kevin's forecasts grew significantly the following years! And during the bull market run through 2019, Kevin continued with his exceptionally impressive pace of forecast results!  

And, remarkably, in 2020 on February 2ND Kevin warned of the Chinese Equities Market collapse! Then, on February 18TH 2020, Kevin called for the application of FULL price level hedge insurance on US Equities Market exposures by Wednesday February 19TH of its 2020 peak week (again enabling prepared parties the prevention of significant equity value loss into latter March 2020)!  


Then in March of 2020 Kevin forecasted the historic near-term market bottom, issuing a further Precision Pivot OTAPS re-entry price point of $287.75 on the US S$P500 SPY ETF as a proxy point indicator, for Monday March 24TH 2020! (With the upsloping "Wilbur Winged W Formation" financial technical analysis price bottom confirmation pattern currently underway!)  
​(See https://wilburwingedwchartpattern.blogspot.com/)

This outstanding pace and reach of Kevin's valuable and lauded commentary and analysis and his remarkable record of timely and effective market forecasts and alerts, issued globally for the benefit and interests of market scholars, market professionals, and active market enthusiasts alike, continues to this day!

See http://www.echovectorvest.com/services.html OUR RECORD: "Forecasting Prowess And Trade Management Technology Consistent With More Than Doubling The Portfolio Position Value Of The DIA ETF (Dow 30 Industrials) From Mid-2007 to 2009 (Including The 2008-2009 Recessionary Period)! More Than Doubling Again From Early 2009 Through 2010! And More Than Doubling Again In 2011! And More Than Tripling Again In 2012! And Then More Than Tripling Again In 2013! And Then More Than Tripling Again In 2014!  And Then More Than Tripling Again In Each Year From 2015 To 2019! And In 2020 More Than Tripling The Entire Gains Of The SP500, That Occurred From October 2016 To February 2020! And In 2021 More Than Tripling Again!!

FURTHER BIO Kevin attended the College of William and Mary as an undergraduate, earning his Double-Major. As a Senior, he was selected by William and Mary (along with one other undergraduate) to enjoy the privilege of attending class his last semester additionally at the Marshall-Wythe School of Law. Kevin grew up and attended High School in Fairfax County, VA. His formative High School achievements and interests also included a plethora of honor societies, clubs, organizations, and awards. At Commencement Kevin was awarded three (for the first time in the history of his high school) different Senior Graduating Day Highest Honor Awards and Plaques: in Service, in Citizenship, and in Social Studies. Kevin was also a Key Club President, a Letterman and District Medal Event Winner in Track and Field, and also earned the Eagle Scout Award. Kevin remains a member of NESA (The National Eagle Scout Association) to this day. 

Kevin is married, and currently lives with his beloved wife and their three children in sunny Florida, USA. 

*With ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST, Kevin has led the design and engineering of an applied methodology seeking to enhance major market exposed portfolio value security and overall portfolio value performance and return through the application and utilization of specialized derivatives as 'portfolio value insurancing' hedges when also combined with the power of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm and the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST Active Advanced Risk Management Trade Technology and Active Advanced Management Position Value Optimization Method. 

AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION MEMBER 

OMICRON DELTA EPSILON, THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS HONOR SOCIETY, PAST PRESIDENT THETA CHAPTER 

MARKET TECHNICIANS ASSOCIATION AFFILIATE MEMBERSHIP 

AUTHOR/CONTRIBUTOR OF ARTICLES PUBLISHED AND FEATURED IN NASDAQ.COM "Official Site Of The Nasdaq Stock Market" CNBC ONLINE "First In Business Worldwide" MARKETWATCH "Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News" MSN MONEY "Investing" YAHOO FINANCE "Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News" SEEKING ALPHA "Stock Market News and Financial News" BULLFAX "Market News and Analysis" STREETINSIDER "If You're Not Inside You're Outside" BIZWAYS "Investment Opportunities And Industry News" FINANCIAL VISUALIZATIONS "Financial Research, Analysis, and Visualization" FINANCE ROUNDTABLE "Market Forecasts and Finance", UNC Chapel Hill ECHOVECTORVEST "Advanced Educational Stock Market Analysis, Forecast, and Alert Website, and Technical Analysis Methodology." YAHOO FINANCE CANADA "Business News, Real Time Stock Quotes, Investing Tools" NEWS NOW UK "Industry, Sector, Commodity, Precious Metal News" THE ECONOMIC TIMES "Business News, Personal Finance, Financial News" FINANCE PONG "Global Financial And Market News" SEEKING ALPHA JAPAN "Overseas Asia" ROYAL METALS GROUP "The Trusted Name In Precious Metals" SHARPS PIXLEY NEWS "Bullion Brokers London Since 1778" A-MARK PRECIOUS METALS "Gold, Silver, Platinum - Charts and Graphs" STERLING INVESTMENT SERVICES "Buy Side Research" GOLD NEWS TODAY "Current Gold Prices And Precious Metals News" GOLD TREND "Intelligent Gold Investing" GOLD PRICE TODAY "Gold News" GOLD RATE 24 "Gold News" INDONESIAN COMPANY "Commodity News" REGATOR "Only The Best Blogs" NEWSBLOGGED "Latest News, Videos, and Live Videos" YAHOO VOICES "General Yahoo Contributors' Network" and many more.

FOR MORE EXTENSIVE PROFILE INFORMATION, AGAIN SEE: http://advancevest.com/kevinjohnbradfordwilbur.html

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THE FOLLOWING LINKS TAKE YOU DIRECTLY TO THE PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS WEB SITE HOMEPAGE 

advancevest.com protectvest.com motiondynamicsandprecisionpivots.com precisionpivots.info echovector.com echovectorpivotpoints.com  echovectorvest.com market-pivot.com etfpivots.com optionpivots.com eminipivots.com stock-pivots.com dowpivots.com spypivots.com qqqpivots.com bondpivots.com commoditypivots.com goldpivots.com silverpivots.com oilpivots.com dollarpivots.com currencypivots.com emergingmarketpivots.com  _______________________________________________________

Current Newsletters: For current applications of EchoVector Analysis see the following fifteen Market Alpha Newsletters Group Newsletters  (Free Online Combined Version): 

1. "The EchoVector Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at marketinvestornews.com and market-pivots.com "The Market Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

2. "The ETF Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter"  By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at etftraderweekly.com and etfinvestorweekly.com and etfpivots.com "The ETF Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

3. "The Dow Composite (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at dowpivots.blogspot.com and dowpivots.com "The Dow Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

4. "The S&P 500 Composite (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at spypivots.blogspot.com and spypivots.com "The S&P Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

5. "The Nasdaq 100 Composite (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at marketinvestornews.com and qqqpivots.com and market-pivots.com "The Nasdaq Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

6. "The Gold Metals Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at goldinvestorweekly.com and goldpivots.com "The Gold Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

7. "The Silver Metals Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at silverinvestorweekly.com and silverpivots.com "The Silver Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

8. "The Bond Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at bondpivots.blogspot.com and bondpivots.com "The Bond Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

9. "The Oil Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at oilpivots.blogspot.com and oilpivots.com "The Oil Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

10. "The Dollar (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at dollarpivots.blogspot.com and dollarpivots.com "The Dollar Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

11. "The Commodity Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at commoditypivots.blogspot.com and commoditypivots.com  "The Commodity Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

12. "The Currency Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at currencypivots.blogspot.com and currencypivots.com "The Currency Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

13. "The Emerging Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at emergingmarket.blogspot.com and emergingmarketpivots.com  "The Emerging Market Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor 

14. "The Emini Futures Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at eminipivots.com and marketinvestornews.com and market-pivots.com "The E-mini Futures Pivots Forecaster" 

15. The Options Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at optionpivots.blogspot.com and optionpivots.com "The Option Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor

Context, See:
TUESDAY, JULY 24, 2012

FED ACTION ALERT: COVER ALL LARGE CAP EQUITY INDEX AND ETF BASED SHORTS: Employ OTAPS Straddle (Effective Full Net Double Longs) At DIA ETF price equivalency basis $126.00

Posted by EchoVectorVEST at 12:56 PM

____________________________________________________________________

CHARTS: The S&P and 'Don't Fight The FED'

CHARTS: The S&P and 'Don't Fight The FED'

Following is a financial physics analysis and interpretation of The Federal Reserve's (THE FED's) current position on the equity market's price level, on how this analysis might interpret THE FED's actions going forward, and on how to position now for this possible (but not certain) FED action in this Presidential Election Year.

At the close of last Thursday's market, CNBC reported an unusual phenomena, a series of 'time-weighted programs' entering the market. The reporter was able to report the phenomena, but was unable to provide any real interpretation of it.

Now, consider the following analog from physics often utilized in financial physics:

"A market vector price support level bridge, which enables 'the passage of a heavy time-weighted week, or period of weeks, to cross it, without incurring 'bridge support level breakthrough'. And consider how THE FED can construct additionally 'cabling' support for the bridge during the periods of 'heavy-load traversing' within a dynamic system."

Current vector price level bridges have already been built by THE FED and are in place and in force... and most market technical analysts often refer to them as 'support.'

Within my model, which incorporates both economic calendar and political economic calendar cycles and variables, several significant bridges are the Active 2-Year Congressional Price Support Vector Bridge (2-year cycle, CCEV) the Active Annual Price Support Vector Bridge (AEV), the Bi-Annual Price Support Vector Bridge (2QEV), and the Quarterly Price Support Vector Bridge (QEV). These active bridges can be readily determined, even to the day.

(For examples, see my SA article, "Chart: The S&P And Should I still Stay Away If I sold In May", and my current SA Instablog posts on the SPY and the DIA.)

THE FED also monitors the Monthly Price Support Vector Bridge (MEV). The MEV is also of particular significance to the active trader, within my model.

Also significant to the active trader is the active Weekly Price Support Vector and Bridge (WEV), the Daily Price Support Vector and Bridge (24HEV), and the Morning Block and Afternoon Block Price Support Vectors and Bridges (which are often impacted and sometimes even formed by The Asian Market's and The European Market's open, trading high, trading low, and closing price.

How the market 'carries various heavily-weighted weeks across' these support price bridges, at key times in the calendar, and how these 'bridges hold up under these 'loads' is of fundamental price support level interest, and its management, to THE FED.

THE FED is utilizing the wealth effect in its overall attempt to 'print, disperse, and distribute anti-deflationary paper value' and its hopefully stimulating effects across the economy.

In the administration of this goal, and this financial physics at work, maintaining certain general equity market price support level 'bridge heights' are very important to THE FED.

So, on occasion THE FED releases certain bridge 'cabling' announcements and acts (additional cable strengths), in support of certain price bridge levels during certain load-challenging periods; or, in the case of Tuesday afternoon, in moments of heavily-weighted two-week loads (see the AEV bridge) that appeared to be having 'trouble traversing the important current supporting bridge price level, and appeared to be breaking through' (see the MEV).

Breakthrough's can cascade to lower bridge levels, and further 'negatively pivoting and down-pressuring price momentum', which can be even further precarious to additional oncoming relative heavy load crossing periods...

THE FED faces one of these on oncoming relative heavy load periods in the significant Presidential Cycle Echovector (PCEV), again in September and October of this year (see the S&P500 5-Year Weekly OHLC Chart below).

As mentioned, last Thursday CNBC reported the unusual process the last hour of trading, that significant 'time-weighted programs' entered the market. The market then lost 3 percent in the following two trading sessions. And yesterday, Tuesday, the market challenged and revisited these low levels, sinking even further, and then positioned itself on a 'cliffhanger' going into the last hour of trading on the key monthly echovector bridge price support (MEV)...

Then, yesterday THE WSJ 'published' a major 'cable' by THE FED during the last 1/2 hour of regular market open trading, to help prop up the market.

THE FED surely is monitoring all relevant echovector price support bridges.

In its administrative market calculus this is surely one of the reasons why August 1 and September are so important to THE FED, and to its perceived resource pool of actions, what the market often refers to as THE FED'S 'effective powder'.

Many time-weighting price vector analyst hold that THE FED would rather not 'spend' its powder now, on the AEV (Annual EchoVector) and these forward 'heavy weighted' two weeks, on and into the market just yet 'in actions', especially if THE FED doesn't have to. This preference exists because of the big September PCEV heavy-weight THE FED faces, and the amount of powder they have left, and the decreasing effect of powders use. On the 'other hand,' THE FED will 'intervene' if it has to, and if the market becomes weak enough to 'cliff' the big problem, and it did yesterday...

THE FED is using the wealth-effect stimulus as part of its 'printing press' activities to keep things afloat, and THE FED would also like to stay in the 'talk it up' (or keep it from falling) modality, if it can, and if 'talk' works (cables) well enough in and of itself.

'Talk' is less expensive than actions.

THE FED would also prefer to continue trying to stimulate Congress to get into the 'stimulating ring' with it, with fiscal stimulus too.

'Acting' also runs contrary to the FEDS usual 'relative quietness and impartiality and inaction' leading into Presidential Elections, a position THE FED tried to (unsuccessfully) set up last year and earlier this year...

'Quiet,' however, is now long gone. And the market now seems on the precipice of FED action.

Below are charts of the SPX highlighting all these key Price Support Vector Bridges converging this week which THE FED is weighting. This week's active PCEV, Presidential Cycle Echovector bridge, is highlighted in white. The CCEV, Congressional Cycle Echovector bridge, is in yellow. The AEV, Annual Cycle Echovector bridge, is in red. The 2QEV,Bi-quarterly Cycle Echovector bridge, is in grey. And the QEV,Quarterly Cycle Echovector bridge, is in peach.

S&P500, SPX 5-YEAR DAILY OHLC

S&P500, SPX 30-MONTH WEEKLY OHLC

So, many analyst are firmly confronted this week with the selection between two powerful and competing Wall Street maxims: 'Sell In May And Go Away' (and staying away), or 'Don't Fight The FED.' Analysts are wrestling this week with which of these two maxims should 'rule the day', and with which of these two maxims should rule these next two weeks and next two months in the stock market. And they are also wrestling with how to approach positioning in the market, if they elect to do so.

(Staying nimble also seems to be another rule of the day...)

In this market environment, we suggest the employment of active and adjustable echovector bridge-based straddling position's to manage stock market exposure to changes in the general price levels. Setting straddles at these bridge levels on their relevant time-basis is an effective and opportune measure and advanced trade strategy.

Such an approach is particularly well-tailored to, and could prove very valuable, in engaging and effectively managing these market situations going forward into the Presidential elections this fall, and thereafter, regardless of what THE FED may or may not say or do in the meantime...

One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the SPY ETF and/or the DIA ETF. By setting up an advanced trade technology "On-Off-Though Vector Target Price Switch" at (EG.) $136 on the SPY or at $128.5 on the DIA, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.

To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below either of these mentioned target price switch levels (EG. $136 on the SPY and/or at $128.5 on the DIA) pre-program as a 'repeating short trigger switch' at the trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action.

To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above either of these the target price switch levels ($136 on the SPY and/or at $128.5 on the DIA) pre-program as a 'repeating long trigger switch' at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.

Now may be a very good time to employ this general market straddle, and this more advanced trade technology and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing the chart of the S&P500 over the past 4 years within this current Presidential Cycle.

Posted by EchoVectorVEST at 7:17 AM

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