Today, tomorrow, and this coming Monday are critical days in the market this month, and this year. If the FED and ECB are able to hold prices up in the current range (on both the AEV and PCEV bases) much will be accomplished. See my commentary below from last week to understand how important these three days are.
Although the Dow 30 Industrials lost 91 points today, today was actually a fairly good day for the market compared to Thursday this week last a year ago. However, if the market is 'calendaring' to the specific 'calendar date number' and not to the exact year-back echo-day within the week (Thursday precisely), more significant problems could lie ahead.
Bulls will be hoping they can weather these next several sessions and then find themselves in echo-price- lift on a pivoting annual echovector basis (began today) starting with this coming Monday's close.
Looking at a one year daily OHLC chart of the /TF (Russell 2000 e-mini Futures) notice how the annual echovector this week is pivoting to the upside with each day, because of last year's extreme price sell-off this echobackweek's set of days.
See last week's commentary below on this issue, and my SA article published yesterday,
And for even deeper technically-oriented vector price support management analysis and commentary, see
A copy is provided following last week's alert and commentary below.
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP
"We're keeping watch for you."
THURSDAY, JULY 26, 2012
STOCK MARKET ALERT AND COMMENTARY
The American and European Central Banks are fully aware of the extraordinarily heavy vector price weights of this week and next week (on an AEV basis, Active Annual Market Price Level Echovector basis) within the global equities markets. The Central Banks also recognize the strong significance of the underlying pivot potentials in the AEV and the subsequent positive effect on following price level vectors if their efforts at stimulus during these important two weeks are effective.
Stimulus on underlying price vectors within the market this week could not be better timed by the key Central Banks. Even stimulus (encouragement) coming simply in the form of strong interventionist yet believable "talking points" issued by the key Central Banks, globally.
Tuesday's talking point 'save' by the FED and today's talking point stimulus by the ECB are providing the coordinated Central Bank price support level lift so well-timed by the Central Banks' recognitions of the active underlying price level echovectors at work in the market.
A key Central Bank efforted pivot in the markets, on an AEV basis is in the works, if the Central banks can maintain this effective price level stimulus condition through the significant down-pressure AEV echovector period also approaching next week.
Central Bank stimulus, successfully 'cabling' Price Support on the AEV this week and next within current Central Bank targeted upper price level bands (price level bridges) can have a strong effect on both the PCEV (Active Presidential Cycle Market Price Level EchoVector) and the RCCEV (Active Regime Change Cycle Market Price Level EchoVector).
Effective Price Support stimulus this week sets up more positively oriented endogenous price echovector induced follow through by the markets for more positive market AEV echoprice action going forward, ceteris paribus.
This is a critical support juncture level, and day, for successful FED-ECB management of global equities price support, see DIA ETF Price equivalency basis and the WEV and AEV intersects.
This will relate to PCEV and RCCEV forward as well.
Potential Key Pivot in works on 2EV AND 3QEV basis at DIA ETF PEB 127.75 AT THIS TIMEPOINT.
See WEV and AEV perspectives.
DIA ETF 127.75 HOLDING:
CBM PSLM EFFECTIVE. Coordinated CB SPTTWM EFFECTIVE
From FED and ECB TPS and TPL interventions this week.
From the ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP Trademark Terminology Matrix
CB: Central Bank
CBM: Central Bank Management
PLM Price Level Management
PSLM Price Support Level Management
SPLM Support Price Level Management
KTSPLM Key Target Support Price Level Management
SPTTWM Support Price Target Time Weighted Management
FED Federal Reserve
ECB European Central Bank
TPE Talking Point Effect
TPL Talking Point Lift
TPS Talking Point Support
APE Action Point Effect
APL Action Point Lift
APS Action Point Support
ARTICLE: WEDNESDAY, JULY 25, 2012
Following is a financial physics analysis and interpretation of The Federal Reserve's (THE FED's) current position on the equity market's price level, on how this analysis might interpret the FED'S actions going forward, and on how to understand and position now for this possibility (but not certain) FED action in this Presidential Election Year.
At the close of last Thursday's market, CNBC reported an unusual phenomena, a series of 'time-weighted programs' entering the market. The reporter was able to report the phenomena, but was unable to provide any real interpretation of it
Now, consider the following analog from physics often utilized in financial physics:
"A market vector price support level bridge, which enables 'the passage of a heavy time-weighted week or period of weeks to cross it, without incurring 'bridge support level breakthrough'. And additionally 'cabling' the bridge for the periods of heavy load in a dynamic system."
Current vector price level bridges have already been built by THE FED and are in place and in force... and most market technical analysts often refer to them as 'support.'
Within my model, which incorporates both economic calendar and political economic calendar cycles and variables, several significant bridges are the Active 2-Year Congressional Price Support Vector Bridge (2-year cycle, CCEV) the Active Annual Price Support Vector Bridge (NYSE:AEV), the Bi-Annual Price Support Vector Bridge (2QEV), and the Quarterly Price Support Vector Bridge (QEV). These active bridges can be readily determined, even to the day.
(For examples, see my SA article, "Chart: The S&P And Should I still Stay Away If I sold In May", and my current SA Instablog posts on the SPY and the DIA.)
THE FED also monitors the Monthly Price Support Vector Bridge (MEV), which is also of particular significance to the active trader, within the EVV MDPP Model.
Also significant to the active trader is the active Weekly Price Support Vector and Bridge, the Daily Price Support Vector and Bridge, and the Morning Block and Afternoon Block Price Support Vectors and Bridges (which are often impacted and sometimes even formed by The Asian Market's and The European Market's open, trading high, trading low, and closing price.
How the market 'carries' various 'heavy-weighted weeks' across these support price bridges,' at key times in the calendar, and how these bridges 'hold up' under these 'loads' is of fundamental price support level interest, and its management, to THE FED.
THE FED is utilizing the wealth effect in its overall attempt to 'print and distribute' anti-deflationary 'paper value' and its hopefully stimulating effects across the economy.
In th administration of this goal, and this financial physics at work, maintaining certain general equity market price support level 'bridge heights' are very important to THE FED.
So, occasional THE FED releases certain bridge 'cabling' announcements and acts (extra-cable strengths) in support of certain price bridge levels during certain load-challenging periods, or in the case of Tuesday afternoon, moments of heavy-weighted two-week load (see the AEV bridge) that appeared to be having trouble traversing the important current supporting bridge price level, and appeared to be breaking through (also see the MEV).
Breakthrough's can cascade to lower bridge levels, and further negatively pivoting and down-pressuring price momentum, which can be even further precarious to additional oncoming heavy load periods...
THE FED faces one of these on the significant Presidential Cycle Echovector (PCEV) in September and October of this year.
As mentioned, last Thursday CNBC reported the unusual process the last hour of trading, that significant 'time-weighted programs' entered the market.,The market then lost 3 percent in the following two trading sessions. And yesterday, Tuesday, the market challenged and revisited these low levels, sinking even further, and then positioned itself on a 'cliffhanger' going into the last hour of trading on the key monthly echovector bridge price support (MEV)...
Then, yesterday THE WSJ 'published' a major 'cable' by THE FED during the last 1/2 hour of regular market open trading, to help prop up the market.
THE FED surely is monitoring all relevant echovector price support bridges.
In its administrative market calculus this is surely one of the reasons why August 1 and September are so important to THE FED, and to its perceived resource pool of actions, what the market often refers to as THE FED'S 'effective powder'.
Many time-weighting price vector analyst hold that THE FED would rather not 'spend' its powder now, on the AEV (Annual EchoVector)and these forward 'heavy weighted' two weeks, on and into the market just yet, especially if THE FED doesn't have to. This preference exists because of the big September PCEV heavy-weight THE FED faces, and the amount of powder they have left, and the decreasing effect of powders use. On the 'other hand,' THE FED will 'intervene' if it has to, and if the market becomes weak enough to 'cliff' the big problem, and it did yesterday...
THE FED is using the wealth-effect stimulus as part of its 'printing press' activities to keep things afloat, and THE FED would also like to stay in the 'talk it up' (or keep it from falling) modality, if it can, and 'talk' works (cables) well enough.
'Talk' is less expensive than actions.
THE FED would also prefer to continue trying to stimulate Congress to get into the 'stimulating ring' with it, with fiscal stimulus too.
'Acting' also runs contrary to the FEDS usual 'relative quietness and impartiality and inaction' leading into Presidential Elections, a position it tried to (unsuccessfully) set up last year and earlier this year...
'Quiet,' however, is now long gone...
And the market now seems on the precipice of FED action.
Below are charts of the SPX highlighting all these key Price Support Vector Bridges converging this week which THE FED is weighting. This week's active PCEV, Presidential Cycle Echovector bridge, is highlighted in white. The CCEV, Congressional Cycle Echovector bridge, is in yellow. The AEV, Annual Cycle Echovector bridge, is in red. The 2QEV,Bi-quarterly Cycle Echovector bridge, is in grey. And the QEV,Quarterly Cycle Echovector bridge, is in peach.
S&P500, SPX 5-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC
S&P500, SPX 15-MONTH WEEKLY OHLC
So, many analyst are now confronted with the selection between two powerful and competing Wall Street maxims: 'Sell In May And Go Away' (and staying away), or 'Don't Fight The FED.' Analysts are wrestling this week with which of these two maxims should rule the day, and with which of these two maxims should rule these next two weeks and next two months in the stock market. And they are also wrestling with how to approach positioning in the market, if they choose to do so.
(Staying nimble, also seems to be the rule of the day.)
In this market environment and climate, we suggest the employment of active and adjustable echovector bridge-based straddling position's to manage positions. Setting straddles at these bridge levels on their relevant time-basis
Such an approach is particularly well tailored to, and could prove very valuable, in engaging and effectively managing these market situations going forward into the Presidential Election, regardless of what THE FED may or may not say or do...
One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the SPY ETF and/or the DIA ETF. By setting up an advanced trade technology "On-Off-Though Target Price Switch" at (EG.) $133 on the SPY or at $125.5 on the DIA, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below either of these mentioned target price switch levels (EG. $133 on the SPY and/or at $125.5 on the DIA) pre-program as a 'repeating short trigger switch' at the trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action.
To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above either of these the target price switch levels ($133 on the SPY and/or at $125.5 on the DIA) pre-program as a 'repeating long trigger switch' at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.
Now may be a very good time to employ this general market straddle, and this more advanced trade technology and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing at the chart of the S&P500 over the past 4 years within this current Presidential Cycle.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
This article is tagged with:
TUESDAY, JULY 24, 2012
FED ACTION ALERT COVER ALL LARGE CAP EQUITY INDEX AND ETF BASED SHORTS: EMPLOY OTAPS FNP INSURANCE AND FNP DOUBLE PRICE STRADDLE AT DIA PEB $126.
MONDAY, JULY 23, 2012
DIA OTAPS: DIA ETF ALERT: Cover FNPDS at 125.50, and Switch to FNPDL, utilizing OTAPS
THURSDAY, MAY 17, 2012
On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch
Active Advance Management Position Value Optimization Methodology and Active Advance Management Trade Technology
ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST by EchoVectorVEST, MDPP, Introduces the
On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch
A Recursive 3-Legged Conditional Branched Chain Stop-Specific Trade Trigger Position Management Order Utility Program and Platform for Advanced Applications of:
FNPI Full Net Portfolio Insurance
FNPL Full Net Portfolio Long
FNPS Full Net Portfolio Short
FNPDL Full Net Portfolio Double Long
FNPDS Full Net Portfolio Double Short
FNPositionI Full Net Position Insurance
FNPositionL Full Net Position Long
FNPositionS Full Net Position Short
FNPositionDL Full Net Position Double Long
FNPositionDS Full Net Position Double Short
FNVI Full Net Vehicle (Price Level) Insurance
FNVL Full Net Vehicle Long
FNVS Full Net Vehicle Short
FNVDL Full Net Vehicle Double Long
FNVDS Full Net Vehicle Double Short
OOTVTAPS: On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch: ootv or otaps (for short)
MONDAY, JULY 23, 2012
ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP Model's Major ALERTS And Position Polarity Adjustment Results Since Late April's Major Seasonal ALERT: Major Large Cap Equity Value UP Over 70%
Major Large Cap Equity Value UP Over 70%
On The 10 Primary EchoVectorVEST MDPP Model
Position Polarity ALERT Adjustments
Issued Since Late April 2012
$DJI and DIA ETF Price Equivalency Basis
i, I Full Net Position Insurance
s, S Full Net Position Short
l, L Full Net Position Long
ds, DS Full Net Position Double Short
dl, DL Full Net Position Double Long
DD Full Net Position Double Double (using Double ETFs and 100% Margin)
(The more aggressive position managers may use the double double strategy.)
PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT ALERTS (POSITION POLARITY CHANGES, PIVOTS)
WTH RESPECTIVE PRICE LEVELS
AND CAPITAL GAIN CAPTURES
LATE APRIL TO MID-JULY ALERTS AND RESULTS
1. Late April DIA $132, Full Insurance Application open and Double-Short Application open.
2. To Late May DIA $124, DS close.
i + 8
s + 8
DDS + 32
3. To Early June DIA $121, insurance close and DL open
4. To Mid-June DIA $128, DL close and insurance open and DS open
l + 7
5. To 3RD Week of June DIA $124.5, insurance close and DS close and DL open
i + 3.5
s + 3.5
ds + 7
6. To Early July DIA $129, insurance open and DL close and DS open
l + 8
7. To DIA $125, insurance close and DS close and DL open
i + 4
s + 4
ds + 8
8. To DIA $128, DL close and insurance open and DS open..
l + 3
dl + 6
9. To DIA $125.50, insurance close and DS close and DL open
i + 2.5
s + 2.5
ds + 5
10. To DIA $126.70, DL close and insurance open and DS open
l + 1.7
MODEL AND APPROACH GAINS AND COMPARISONS
UP $94.70 Net Total Capital Gain Capture Differential, DIA Price Equivalency Basis
UP 71.72% on ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP Active Advanced Management 8 Adjustment MODEL
DOWN $5.30 on Passive Management 0 Adjustment MODEL
DOWN 4.02% on Passive Management 0 Adjustment MODEL
FOR TODAY'S KEY CHARTS AND ANALYSIS, SEE:
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP
"We're keeping watch for you."
COPY AND PASTE THE LINKS ABOVE INTO YOUR BOWSER'S ADDRESS BAR FOR SUCCESSFUL AND UNIMPEDED NAVIGATION DIRECTLY TO WEBPAGES.
Posted by EchoVectorVEST
Chart illustrations Utilize the Following Terminological References
From the EchoVectorVEST 'TradeMark Terminology Matrix' and Reference Guide:
EV Echovector, EchoVector
FEV Forecast EchoVector
KFED Key Forecast EchoDate
FETP Forecast (Forward) EchoTimepoint
KFETP Key Forecast EchoTimePoint
KEBD Key EchoBackDate
KEBTP Key EchoBackTimePoint
ASEV Asian Session EchoVector (Shanghai Index Centric)
ESEV European Session EchoVector (Continent Centric)
DEV Daily EchoVector
24HEV 24Hour EchoVector
2DEV 2Day EchoVector
48HEV 48Hour EchoVector
WEV Weekly EchoVector
2WEV Bi-Weekly EchoVector
MEV Monthly EchoVector
2MEV Bi-monthly EchoVector
QEV Quarterly EchoVector
2QEV 6-Month EchoVector, 2 Quarters
3QEV 6- Month EchoVector, 3 Quarters
4QEV 12-Month EchoVector, 4 Quarters, Annual
AEV 12-Month EchoVector, Yearly
6QEV 18-Month EchoVector
1.5AEV 18-Month EchoVector
2AEV 2-Year EchoVector
CCEV Congressional Cycle EchoVector
4AEV 4-Year EchoVector
PCEV Presidential Cycle EchoVector
8AEV 8-Year EchoVector
RCCEV Regime Change Cycle EchoVector (4 or 8 Years)
5AEV 5-Year EchoVector
FRCEV Federal Reserve EchoVector, 5-Year
10AEV 10-Year, One Decade, EchoVector
What is ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP?
Providing Forecasting and Trade Management Technology, Analysis, and Education Consistent With Doubling the Portfolio Position Value of The DIA ETF (Dow 30 Industrials) From Mid 2007 to 2011!
Then More Than Doubling Again in 2011!
And Then More Than Doubling Again in the First Half of 2012!
ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST, MDPP
Themes: Stock Market Education, ETF Analysis, Market Forecast,Market Opinion, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis, Cyclical Analysis,Price Analysis, Economy, Macro Outlook, Trading, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Commodities, Futures, EchovectorVEST Stocks:IWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY
▼ 2012 (654)
▼ 07/15 - 07/22 (22)
- $DJI CHART: RIGHT ON TARGET: WEDNESDAY 18 JULY 201...
- GLD ETF CHART: QUARTERLY ECHOVECTOR AND BI-QUARTER...
- USO ETF CHART FOR WEDNESDAY 18 JULY 4:50AMEST: RIG...
- USO ETF CHART: RIGHT ON TARGET: WEDNESDAY 18 JULY ...
- /YM DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS E-MINI FUTURES CHART FOR WE...
- /YM DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS E-MINI FUTURES CHART FOR WE...
- USO OTAPS 33.50
- GLD OTAPS 154 .30
- DIA OTAPS 128.05
- DIA OTAPS 127.22
- DIA OTAPS 126. 32 (10:45amest) GLD OTAPS 152.55 US...
- DIA OTAPS 127.02
- USO OTAPS 33.40
- GLD OTAPS 154.14
- DIA OTAPS ALERT 127.82 AND CHART
- DIAETF CHARTS: 3DAY1MINUTE OHLC AND 30DAY1HOUR OHL...
- uso otaps 33.15
- dia otaps 127.35
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This post has 3 comments:
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OK thanks for posting the updated information and commentary. Will be interesting to see how the first couple of weeks in August go in US and world markets. Not much doubt that the Fed, ECB, and other central banks are doing much to try and keep markets elevated, even if it is only repeatedly issuing and implying more monetary action at any point in time.
27 Jul, 12:22 AMReplyDelete CommentLike0
Thank you, UT.
My work indicates this week was critical.
If the first week of August also reflects similar divergent and positive pivoting action on an annual echovector reflection basis, then the Central Banks will have produced much by way of price support intervention. Approaching some of this fall's relatively heavy-weighted weeks and periods coming (on an Annual EchoVector and Presidential Cycle EchoVector basis) from these otherwise strengthened and better upward sloping vectors, and higher nominal price level perches... or bridge levels... should be relatively advantageous...
This week's significant price level lift currently has us trading ABOVE the bi-quarterly echovector (strength) of last fall's high to this spring's high, transposed to an Annual Echovector equivalent, and then projected from last August's low. This is a powerfully positive vector math and price level mechanics occurance and outcome. Especially since this bi-quarterly echovector vector is also fundamentally defined by and reflects the 2-year Congressional Cycle echovector (major recovery momentum echovector) from May 2009 to May 2011.
This is a powerful occurance and outcome, and a powerful piece of market vector price level and price momentum information, and the central banks couldn't have timed their respective Fed-Speak and ECB-Speak better, nor asked for better results from their 'talking points' in the immediate term...
27 Jul, 10:17 AMReplyDelete CommentLike0
I've posted a chart illustrating this key 2-year (CCEV) and bi-quarterly (2AEV) echovector at the ECHOVECTORVEST home blogsite.
The chart utilizes the DIA ETF price equivalency basis. The chart frame perspective is 5-Year Daily OHLC.
This key momentum echovector is illustrated on the chart in dotted yellow.
27 Jul, 10:40 AMReplyDelete CommentLike0_______________________________________________
ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP MODEL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND COMPARISON WITH PASSIVE MARKET MANAGEMENT APPROACH FOR 2ND QUARTER 2012
Jul 29, 2012 3:02 PM | about stocks: IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA
EchoVectorVEST MDPP Major Price Pivot ALERTS For The Major Composite US Equities Market During The 2ND Quarter of 2012: April, May, And June.
Powerful And Outstanding Results From EchoVectorVEST's Active and Advanced Forecast Model And Position Management Technology.
Jun 30, 2012 2:46 AM
ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP MODEL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND COMPARISON WITH PASSIVE MARKET MANAGEMENT APPROACH FOR 2ND QUARTER 2012 (Coming)
(1) Passive Market Participation Management Results and
(2) EchovectorVEST MDPP Major Price Momentum Pivot ALERTS Results,
For the Major Stock Market Composites (Using the DIA ETF Price Equivalency Comparison Basis.)
SUMMARY RESULTS AND COMPARISONS
DIA ETF Closing Price 1ST Quarter 2011: $131.80 per share
DIA ETF Closing Price 2ND Quarter 2012: $128.45 per share
(1) Passive Market Participation Management
Results: - $3.35 per share
Results on % Basis - 2.54% per share
(2) Active ProtectVEST Active Advanced Risk and Position Management Methodology Results:
(TOTAL PER SHARE CAPITAL GAIN CAPTURE DIFFERENTIAL From Model's Major ALERTS in 2ND Quarter [STANDARD OTAPS PI and DP, Short or Long, Basis]:
Total Major Market OTAPS ALERT Results: +120.75 per share
Results on % basis + 91.62% per share
*For 2ND Quarter, 2012: ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST ByEchovectorVEST Active Advanced Risk Management Methodology Yields $124 PER SHARE SIMULATED CAPITAL GAIN Beyond the Buy-and-Hold Passive Market Participation Management Result.
**Gains from Active Advanced Management can actually far exceed the per share indication because of the geometric base expansion factor from full reinvestment of gains with each additional ALERT re-adjustment and repositioning back into capital investment base and its specific forward result, with these compounded further in each sequential move.
CHRONOLOGY OF ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP MAJOR PRICE PIVOT ALERTS ISSUED FOR THE 2ND QUARTER OF 2012
(Presented In Reversed Chronological Order)
A DIRECT LINK TO EACH ALERT IS PROVIDED
During the 2ND Quarter of 2012, ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST by EchoVectorVEST MDPP has continued its strong tradition of powerful success in the areas of major market price level forecasting and in the generation of timely related major market alerts.
Below is a Chronology of the major seasonal price momentum pivot ALERTS generated and issued by the ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST MDPP Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm for the US Major Equities Market in the 2ND Quarter of 2012, April/MAY/June.
To find out more about this methodology you can go to EchoVectorVEST MDPP at
and http:// echovectorvest.blogspot.com
for EchoVectorVEST MDPP Model OTAPS ALERTS and issuances,
or "Wiki AboutUS" at
ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP ALERT TERMINOLOGY:echovectorvest.com/Trademark-Terminology.html
PEB: Price Equivalency Basis
PI Portfolio Position Insurance
DP Double Position (Utilizing 100% Margin or Double ETF Instruments)
DL Double Long
DS Double Short
DD Double Double Position (Utiizing Margin and Double ETF Instruments)
FNP Full Net Position
CGL: Capital Gain Lock
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