News of the day:
1) RIP Steve Jobs. He will go up there with the all time great USA businessmen and visionaries. Irrefutable impact on the lives on millions, and for the better.
2) Palin not running for president. Makes me happy. Too dense to be president. Would have stolen credence from more qualified candidates, such as Herman Cain.
As suggested, if we received good data, we would rally 1-2%. Spot on. Thought it would be bad, so off in that regard.
I really hope there will be little to no speculation on the death of Steve Jobs in relation to the market. Initial and continuing claims come out pre market - with both expected to come in just at the mendoza line of @ 400k and 3700k. Expect a negative revision to last week's numbers. With that being said, a very bullish bias remains, so I don't think we will be negatively effected unless the numbers are abysmal. With the theme of continuing to observe data and draw own macroeconomic conclusions...
I plan to synthesize aforementioned US data with the following international relevance
1) Germany manufacturing orders, which comes out @ 0600 ET
2) ECB meeting (rates) @ 0745 ET.
Read this article for a preview of the meeting.
Personally, I don't think the market will react to jobs or manufacturing data, unless it helps prove the bullish case. The X factor is the ECB meeting. The implications of their actions and potential rate hold/cut will dominate the market. The dollar could substantially climb, which never bodes well for the market. ECB could also announce a euro Tarp or whatever you want to disguise government interference in free markets/stimulus/easing/etc. They have the potential to cause a massive rally/ or equally disturbing fall.
I remain in cash, gold, and my brilliant spxu/ yhoo call trade. Today was down 6% on spxu/ up 100% on yhoo calls...
5 x -.06 = -.3
1 x 2 = 1
profit = .7 units
If positive data, I will look for healthy stocks to buy on dips and exit quickly. MSFT and TOT remain my ideal candidates. Conceivably, if ECB does something crazy I will enter out of the money calls on FAS. Weekly or 10/22 expiration.
I'm really paying attention to the 1160 SP500 level. Pull up the 1 month SP 500 chart. If you notice from 9/16, the trend has been down: lower highs, lower lows. If we were to close above the 1160 for the week, would serve as a bullish indicator. At the same time, remember bear markets have a funny way of playing out and markets rarely move in straight lines. Continue to be nimble and stick to your convictions.