The Hamburg-based firm now sees FY16 EPS of $1.00 ($1.50 prior) and FY17 EPS of $3.40 ($2.50 prior) which leads to a refreshed price target of $150 (13% downside).
Analyst Adam Hull points to the increased pace of EV and plug-in hybrid launches by competitors which adds pressure to Tesla's roll-out plan.
Other factors which could swing positive or negative for Tesla include the price of oil, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the extension or wadding up of the U.S. federal tax credit.
Berenberg isn't scared of taking on stocks popular with consumers and investors. About a year ago it set a price target of $60 on Apple.