"We just don't see it... BASF cannot come up with a more attractive offer" than the current Dow-DuPont deal, Bernstein analysts write, adding that BASF would struggle to raise the expected $72B for a takeover.
Jefferies' Laurence Alexander notes that BASF has not done large-scale M&A since the end of the last decade, and its reported interest in a potential spoiler bid for DuPont "run aground" on BASF’s return on investment capital, disinterest in equity financing, and credit ratings.
"The math is terrible for this," Bernstein's Jonas Oxgaard says, also noting that DuPont may be obligated to pay Dow a $1.9B termination fee if it breaks the deal.
For his part, CNBC's Jim Cramer thinks a DuPont-BASF deal makes no sense "strategically or financially" for either company, although BASF could emerge as a buyer of certain assets Dow-DuPont may be required to divest in order to secure antitrust approval for their merger.
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