Bearish traders are fixated on U.S. inventory builds, says Goldman's Neil Mehta, but the recent rise in stocks is thanks to an elevated refinery turnaround season, liquidation of floating storage globally, and an OPEC supply push late last year.
"Constructive" at least in the short term, Mehta and team see WTI crude rising to $57.50 per barrel by mid-year, and averaging $55 in H2. This vs. the current price just north of $50.
Then there's the chance of an OPEC deal extension at its May 25 meeting, which would mean downside to supply forecasts, and upside for prices.
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