Demand for Tesla’s (TSLA -3%) Model 3 sedan likely will remain soft in the U.S. until the release of the lower-priced $35K model next quarter, Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne says in reiterating his Underperform rating and cutting his stock price target to $180 from $200.
Osborne cuts his Q1 Model 3 delivery forecast to 47.5K from 55K and his Model S/X delivery outlook to 18K from 21.5K to reflect both state government and third party data that he says suggests deliveries will be weaker than previous expectations even with the "typical end of quarter frantic push."
The biggest risk to the revised estimates may be China, where delivery expectations and customs clearance are less transparent, Osborne says.
TSLA typically reports quarterly delivery and production data within a few days of the end of the period; Osborne says a high vehicle-in-transit number likely would indicate delivery logistic challenges in Europe and China, similar to what was seen in the U.S. market last year.
Now read: Tesla Needs Strong Q1 Finish »
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