When President Trump tweets more than usual, the stock market tends to fall slightly, on average, according to note by Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian.
"Since 2016, days with more than 35 tweets (90th percentile) by Trump have seen negative returns (-9 basis points), whereas days with less than five tweets (10th percentile) have seen positive returns (+5 bp) -- statistically significant," Subramanian writes.
“New tariffs announced in August indicate downside risk to our 2019/20 EPS growth forecasts of +2%/+7%, where indirect impacts from hits to corporate or consumer confidence could be significant,” she said.
Regardless of Trump's tweeting activity, stocks have risen overall since he's been elected; the Dow is up 42% since the 2016 election and up 31% since he took office.
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