Two-year yield drops most since financial crisis

  • The two-year Treasury yield is off 20 basis points today to 0.905%. That's the largest one-day decline since late in the global financial crisis.
  • The 10-year yield, meanwhile, is down 10 basis points to 1.16%. The Fed, for now, continues to play it cool, but with the Fed Funds rate at 1.50%-1.75% towering over the rest of the yield curve, it seems just a matter of time before the central bank will be forced to move. Short-term rate traders are betting on a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in March. Unless things improve quickly, the betting from this editor says that's conservative.
  • A few relevant ETFs: TLT, PTY, TBT, BND, AGG, IEF, SHY, IEI, BOND, EDV, TMV, RCS, SCHZ, BTZ, TMF, GSY, VGLT, PCM

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