JPMorgan calls V-shaped recovery unlikely

May 16, 2020 9:54 AM ETBy: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor31 Comments
  • JPMorgan says it doesn't see clear signs of a meaningful pickup of economic activity in the U.S yet. In particular, it's noted that new filings for jobless claims remain massive relative to the pre-virus norms, even though the level of filings has moved down each week since the initial surge in March.
  • "Given what we see in state-by-state restrictions, it’s reasonable to conjecture that April was the bottom for retail spending and May could see a modest increase in sales. What’s more important, and more in doubt, is the vigor of any summertime recovery in consumer spending," warns the firm.
  • JPMorgan expects April real consumption growth to have fallen 14% and says annualized real consumer spending growth in Q2 is tracking in the ballpark of -50%. Overall, JPMorgan forecasts that real GDP will fall 40% in Q2 on a SAAR basis.
  • The takeaway from JPMorgan's assessment is that a V-shaped recovery is extremely unlikely.

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