Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

S&P 500 to return 6%/year over next 10 years, Goldman forecasts

Jul. 15, 2020 9:55 AM ETSP500By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor50 Comments
  • Goldman Sachs strategists, led by David Kostin, forecast that the S&P 500 will generate average annual returns, including dividends, of 6% over the next 10 years.
  • They also say stocks have a 90% chance of beating bonds during that time. Not surprising, seeing that the 10-year Treasury only yields 0.65%.
  • Of course, there are risks to the S&P 500 outlook — deglobalization, taxes (especially given the November presidential election), labor costs, demographics, and index composition.
  • The strategists incorporated five factors into their forecast — today's absolute and relative valuations, equity allocations, dividend yield estimates, and economic modeling.
  • In July 2012, Goldman conducted a similar forecast and estimated return of 8%, which underestimated the actual gain of 13.6%.
  • SPY performance over the past five years:

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.