Seeking Alpha Catalyst Watch


Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch - a breakdown of some of next week's actionable events that stand out. Check out Saturday morning's regular Stocks to Watch article for a full list of events planned for the week or the Seeking Alpha earnings calendar for companies due to report.

Monday - February 15

  • Volatility watch - Stocks with a high level of volatility implied by options trading include Globalstar (NYSEMKT:GSAT) and Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT). Names that have seen an increase in short interest recently include iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ) and DiSH Network (NASDAQ:DISH). The big runup in short interest in the cannabis sector over the last 30 days will have names like Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC), Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY), Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) and GW Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:GWPH) on watch again.
  • All week - It is slow for futures contract expirations with just the S&P 500 VIX and Pork cutout contracts rolling off. The expirations can ratchet up volatility a bit.
  • All day - U.S markets are closed for the President's Day holiday.

Tuesday - February 16

  • All week - A busy week of conference includes the Barclays Industrial Select Conference 2021, Citi Global Industrials Conference 2021, Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference 2021 (called CAGNY), Citi Immuno-Oncology Conference 2021, Molecular Med Tricon Conference 2021, BTIG Medical Technology, Digital Health, Life Science and Diagnostic Tools Conference 2021.
  • All week - 13F filings are due in from hedge funds and institutional investors on holdings as of the end of Q4. The positions held in some of the short squeeze targets like GameStop (NYSE:GME) into the volatile January-February period will be of interest. Other names to watch for as the filings pour in are W.R. Grace & Co (NYSE:GRA), Apartment Investment and Management Company (NYSE:AIV) and Encompass Health Corporation (NYSE:EHC) to see if more activist investors jumped in.
  • All day - Investors in the banking sector will be watching for credit card chargeoff reports from American Express (NYSE:AXP), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Capital One (NYSE:COF), Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF). JPMorgan says it expects modest improvement in loss rates for the majority of issuers and flat to slightly worse total delinquencies, as seasonal influences take effect. Asset balances are forecast to decline on a month-to-month basis as consumers reined in spending after the holiday season, a trend that is likely to continue in February and March as tax refund season begin.
  • All day - It is the first trading day following the IPO lockup period expiration for Harmony Biosciences Holdings (NASDAQ:HRMY)and Inhibrx (NASDAQ:INBX). Close to 92% of HRMY's shares will be freed up to be sold and around 79% of INBX's shares will be let loose. The analyst quiet period expires on Dream Finders Homes (NASDAQ:DFH) after shares more than doubled from their IPO pricing level.
  • All day - It is the first trading day after the FDA action date on G1 Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:GTHX) trilaciclib. Shares of G1 shot up more than 9% after the company reported positive data in a Phase 2 trial last December.
  • All day - A diagnostic NDA mid-cycle review meeting is being held by the FDA to review Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited' (OTC:TLPPF) TLX591-CDx or Illumet for the imaging of prostate cancer using positron emission tomography. Telix trades near the top of its 52-week range.
  • CAGNY Conference - Presenters include General Mills (NYSE:GIS) at 8:00 a.m., ConAgra Brands (NYSE:CAG) at 9:20 a.m., Unilever (NYSE:UL) at 10:40 a.m. and Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) at 3:10. The companies could issue updates or presentation slides well ahead of the presentation times. Last year, ConAgra stumbled at CAGNY, dropping for two straight days after the tone from management on profit rattled investors.
  • 8:30 a.m. Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) management will host its annual Investor Conference in virtual format. Conference call slides will be posted in advance of the call on the company website.
  • 10:00 a.m. Keep an eye out for news of some sort from McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). A text message posted by Barstool's Dave Portnoy asking him to work with the company indicated an "exciting" announcement will be made. It is unclear if the announcement will be significant product news or just a standard marketing press release.
  • 11:00 a.m. Athersys (NASDAQ:ATHX) will host a two-hour virtual investor day. The event will cover various topics, including an overview of the company's strategy, board and executive leadership, its commitment to environment, social and governance matters, and progress updates on the critical care programs, manufacturing and distribution approach and commercial readiness plans. A Q&A session will follow the main presentation.
  • 12:00 p.m. AECOM (NYSE:ACM) holds its annual Investor Day event. Management says it will present an update and provide long-term financial guidance as the company delivers on its broad Think and Act Globally strategy. Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating on Aecom on it expectation that multiyear growth prospects and opportunities laid out at the event will be well received by investors.
  • 12:00 p.m. Top sustainability execs from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) will participate in Bloomberg's The Road to Net Zero event. The road to a net zero economy will be discussed.

Wednesday - February 17

  • All day - Companies due to report earnings with an elevated level of implied volatility based on options trading include Allete (NYSE:ALE) with a 16.0% implied move after its report is released and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) with a 8.6% implied move.
  • CAGNY Conference - Presenters include Kellogg (NYSE:K) at 8:00 a.m., Altria (NYSE:MO) at 12:30 p.m. and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) at 1:50 p.m. The companies could issue updates or presentation slides well ahead of the presentation times. Last year, Kellogg poked out a 2% gain after updating guidance just ahead of its presentation.
  • 9:00 a.m. Genworth Financial (NYSE:GNW) will hold its earnings conference call. Investors will be looking for an update on the long-planned merger with China Oceanwide.
  • 9:30 a.m. General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) Chief Financial Officer Jason Aiken will speak at the Barclays 2021 Industrial Select Conference. Investors will be focused on any update on the company's aerospace business recovery and backlog of orders.
  • 11:00 a.m. Microcap Khiron Life Sciences Corp. (OTCQX:KHRNF) will host a live webcast to discuss recent results and management's outlook for 2021. The company is balancing sustainable patient growth with margins.
  • 2:00 p.m. FOMC meeting minutes are due to be released.
  • 5:05 p.m. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated conversation on national and global economic issues before virtual Global Perspectives series hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Thursday - February 18

  • All day - Companies due to report earnings with an elevated level of implied volatility based on options trading include Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (NASDAQ:AAWW) with a 9.0% implied move after its report is released and Blue Apron Holdings (NYSE:APRN) with a 8.6% implied move. Options volatility is also elevated on earnings reporters Dropbox (NASDAQ:DBX) and Conduent (NASDAQ:CNDT), which both saw share price rallies last quarter after in the after-hours session immediately following earnings.
  • CAGNY Conference - Presenters include Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) at 9:20 a.m., TreeHouse Foods (NYSE:THS) at 11:50 a.m. and Kimberly-Clark at 3:10 p.m. The companies could issue updates or presentation slides well ahead of the presentation times. Last year, Kellogg poked out a 2% gain after updating guidance just ahead of its presentation.
  • 8:00 a.m. Walmart (WMT) holds its annual investor event on the same day it reports Q4 earnings. The update on Walmart+ will be of high interest after the platform's first full quarter. The event could also provide a window into some of the future earnings streams for the retail giant via the Walmart Connect advertising platform, financial services, healthcare centers and insurance products. A big wildcard is if Walmart provides FY22 guidance. If the company does push out a forecast, elevated COVID-related costs could be peeled off to give EPS a boost.
  • 9:00 a.m. Pershing Square Holdings (OTCPK:PSHZF) holds its virtual annual investor meeting. The event will include a fireside chat with Hilton Worldwide (NYSE:HLT) CEO Christopher Nassetta.
  • 9:00 a.m. An event in Europe covering hydrogen-fueled buses and infrastructure will feature talks by execs with Ballard Power Systems (NASDAQ:BLDP), Cummins (NYSE:CMI) and Worthington Industries (NYSE:WOR) just as investors lasering in on the sector.
  • 10:30 a.m. Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) will present at BMO BioPharma Spotlight Series: "Proteins - Degraders and Other Next Gen Technologies." Kymera has been singled out by Haggerston BioHealth for huge upside in targeted protein degradation science and technology.
  • 11:00 a.m. Gossamer Bio (NASDAQ:GOSS) will host a conference call and webcast to discuss GB004, its oral HIF-1a stabilizer for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, including ulcerative colitis. Gossamer management will present alongside key IBD and HIF biology opinion leaders. Execs will be available for questions at the end of the event.

Friday - February 19

  • All day - The IPO lockup period on XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) doesn't expire until February 23, but electric vehicle stocks have shown some weakness in the last few trading days before lockup expirations in the past. Shares of XPeng have tripled from the IPO pricing level.
  • All day - Companies due to report earnings with an elevated level of implied volatility based on options trading include Barnes Group (NYSE:B) with a 7.9% implied move after its reports is released and Gentherm (NASDAQ:THRM) with a 7.2% implied move.
  • All day - Deere (NYSE:DE) is due to report earnings. The company has run off a string of five consecutive double beats (revenue and EPS). Key suppliers Mayville Engineering (NYSE:MEC) and Titan International (NYSE:TWI) should be watched. Both companies land more than 10% of their revenue from Deere and move in tandem with it 75% of the time in the week after earnings are reported.
  • CAGNY Conference - Presenters include Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY) at 8:00 a.m., Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) at 10:40 a.m., Newell Brands (NASDAQ:NWL) at 11:50 a.m and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) at 12:30 p.m. Of the companies presenting, Newell Brands saw the biggest share price move last year, falling 3.3% after its CAGNY appearance.
  • 9:45 a.m. The IHS-Markit manufacturing index will get a harder look than normal to see if supply constraints, particularly semiconductors in the auto industry, spread to other sectors and impacted near-term production. The preliminary February IHS-Markit services print is forecast by Bank of America to decline to 57.5 from 58.3, but notch an eight consecutive monthly reading at 50 (indicating expanding activity in the sector).

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