Dow Jones, Nasdaq mixed before OPEC meeting and jobless claims

Jul. 01, 2021 6:27 AM ETSPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), QQQ, SPYBy: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

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  • Cyclical shares are leading the market higher again as Wall Street kicks off the second half of 2021. The Dow closed up 0.6% yesterday, with futures linked to the index tacking on another 0.2% overnight, while the Nasdaq finished in the red on Wednesday and contracts linked to the index are inching lower before the open. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 marked its 34th record of 2021, closing the day above 4,300.
  • Strong first halves for the stock market are generally a good omen for the rest of the year. According to Refinitiv data that goes back 1950, whenever there has been a double-digit gain in the first half, the Dow and S&P 500 have never ended the year with an annual loss. The Russell 2000 also climbed more than 17% in the first half of 2021 due to a strong rotation into value stocks.
  • Oil in focus: OPEC+ will convene via videoconference at 9 a.m. ET to discuss the next phase of their production policy. The group is optimistic about market conditions, with WTI crude ahead by nearly 50% to $74/bbl since the beginning of the year. At its last monthly meeting, OPEC+ announced a supply increase of 2.1M barrels per day between May and July, and analysts expect that it could bring another 500K barrels per day online starting in August.
  • On the calendar: Krispy Kreme begins trading this morning after a bumper week for IPOs. Those included Didi Chuxing, LegalZoom, Taboola and SentinelOne. The latest data on weekly jobless claims will also be published at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting initial claims for unemployment totaling 390K, down from 411K the week before.

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