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Tesla is poised for 50% breakout higher off strong 2022 catalysts - New Street Research

Dec. 08, 2021 8:51 AM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor346 Comments

Plug-In Electric Cars Put On Display On Grounds Of U.S. Capitol

Win McNamee/Getty Images News

  • New Street Research boosts its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $1,580 to mark a new Street high.
  • Analyst Pierre Ferragu and team point to multiple strong catalysts for Tesla (TSLA) in looking ahead

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Comments (346)

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PancakeWednesday profile picture
Did you lose the current Tesla logo again? 🙃

Oh well no Santa this time😢
There is NOTHING re a high current run rate or Austin GF or Brandenberg GF coming online that isn't already well known.

Re 4680 production and timeline, we won't know until it happens.

I'm constantly amused how so many supposed Tesla gurus think that somehow Austin and Brandenberg are some amazing secret that will be some massive catalyst for TSLA.

With such amazing "insight", how can such investors/analysts possibly be wrong? /s

I'm a long term Tesla bull, on the strength of EV's and green energy overall. But I know that things like facts and trends and reality actually matter, and I temper my expectations accordingly (old fashioned as that may be).
@Outcast_Searcher I've read a plethora of your posts. It's clear you have a long history in the investment and financial world and plenty of wisdom at this point. I would guess you have a good sense of politics as well. So I wonder, what do you think the likelihood the PPP passage will include significant tax credits for TSLA purchases in 2022? I'm curious because we postponed taking delivery of a model 3 after the 12/31 :) Either way, it will be the garage in about a month now. And either way, we have lots of stock. Dog
Sunil Shah profile picture

Tesla drivers playing video games: NHTSA opens investigation
Tesla owner files complaint to the feds: 'Somebody’s going to get killed'


On Wednesday, NHTSA confirmed that it's looking into the matter. News of Patton’s complaint was first reported Tuesday by The New York Times.
“We are aware of driver concerns and are discussing the feature with the manufacturer,” a NHTSA spokeswoman wrote in an email. “The Vehicle Safety Act prohibits manufacturers from selling vehicles with design defects posing unreasonable risks to safety.”
The spokeswoman declined to provide further details of its conversations with Tesla. The agency has not opened a formal investigation, which would involve requests for documents and other detailed information. Tesla, which has disbanded its media relations department, did not respond to messages from The Associated Press.
NHTSA's inquiry marks the latest in a growing list of possible infractions involving advanced auto technology that are being reviewed by two federal agencies as potential safety risks.
The government is looking into Tesla's Autopilot partially automated driving system, as well as its “Full Self-Driving” software system, which is being tested by selected owners on public roads. In addition, as it increases scrutiny under President Joe Biden, NHTSA is investigating over-the-internet software updates that are intended to fix safety problems and Tesla battery fires.
deercreekvols profile picture
@Sunil Shah

Not sure why Seeking Alpha has zero coverage of this.

Readers get the latest Elon Musk tweet but there is nothing on another NHTSA inquiry.

Strange days indeed.
CR Spencer profile picture
@Sunil Shah You missed your calling. Such shock and outrage. Should have been a sports commentator. At least this isn't printed on paper because it would be an outrage to kill trees for the sake of a few faulty sensors. Fires are significant but I imagine the time that has been spent reading about those few fires mentioned over and over far exceeds the lifetimes of the people involved in them.
Sunil Shah profile picture
@deercreekvols well it's not, IMO, an SA bias, but what readers point out to SA Editors, (as SA cant find e'thing themselves and rely on leads)
And there is an overwhelming ratio of Tesla bulls vs bears on SA.
deercreekvols profile picture
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Thursday that it is communicating with Tesla regarding faulty Autopilot cameras in some of the electric vehicles the company produced in Fremont, California.

As CNBC reported on Monday, Tesla is replacing repeater cameras in some of its U.S.-made vehicles after finding faulty printed circuit boards inside. The company has not issued a voluntary recall thus far but is handling replacements on a goodwill basis for eligible customers.

Funny how this news flew under the Seeking Alpha radar but Tweets from Elon Musk are newsworthy on this site.

Be aware. Beware.
Sunil Shah profile picture
@deercreekvols BUT TELSA IS GONNA BREAKOUT BY 50% !!!
@deercreekvols: When no car manufacturers ever have quality issues or recalls, be sure and let us know.
@Sunil Shah: If you type with all caps a lot more, how could there be any doubt? /s
Sunil Shah profile picture
"Tesla is poised for 50% breakout"
sooo funny!!
50% breakout ??

Not with the disappointing sales numbers that Tesla shows in Europe.

For example, take the German EV market. It represents 31% of the overall European EV volume.
How is Tesla doing in this highly important market ?

Disapponting !

German BEV volume Jan-Nov 2021 : 307,000 units
Tesla BEV volume Jan-Nov 2021: 33,000 units , 11% BEV market share only !

Very disappointing is also the sales of higher priced, high margin (75k-100k €) BEVs:

Volume Jan-Nov 2021:

Tesla Model S/X : 50 units !!!

Audi e-tron quattro : 7,535 units

Porsche Taycan: 4,236 units

Audi Q4 e-tron: 3,531 units

Audi e-tron GT: 1,742 units

So Tesla has lost the really wealthy customers that are looking for a 75-120k€ luxury BEV.

This has reasons. People buying in that price range are not looking for the last 50 miles better battery range, they are looking for top quality and luxury, best in class interior features and functions.

Tesla is not delivering this with Model S and X.
Maxed Out Mama profile picture
@bmeier.vonmod Tesla is not delivering S/X in Europe, so I don't think this is a valid comparison.
@MaxedOutMama is China exported Tesla's still on track to cannibalize the EU market?
Maxed Out Mama profile picture
@dmzporter Well, at this point in time, yes.

If Tesla were to even produce 100K cars at Brandenburg next year, they would have to do something else with at least 75K cars produced in Shanghai. I really don't know what that would be. They could keep shipping the Model 3s to Europe from Shanghai next year, and I assume they will.

I do think Tesla runs into a problem next year with the capacity, but since I expect Brandenburg to start late and slow, maybe it is not such a big problem. I think they will bring up Austin in the first quarter (maybe a few token cars produced this quarter) and then start working on Brandenburg.

It's horrible circs in Germany to bring up a factory anyway, considering the latest viral wave, so they shouldn't even try. Later in 2022 supply issues should ease up a bit too.

Tesla needs more products to make in four factories. We are waiting to hear from them on what those will be and when. We certainly know those new products won't include a 25K self-driving "World Car" without a steering wheel or brake pedals!

Maybe they will get the CT going next year. Maybe not. We'll have to wait and see what they say about their plans in January when they report results.

Tesla could not have foreseen the supply problems when they started Brandenburg, but the decision to go for Austin seems to have been a bit premature, unless they really want to write off Fremont.
CR Spencer profile picture
From electric cars, trucks and solar generation to self-driving cars, and personal robots. What's next; boats, submarines, airplanes, lunar rovers? What a stock! And every year short sellers put it on sale for a big discount. What a time to buy stocks. Tesla's convinced the whole automotive establishment to go electric, companies are going to outer space, computers can build any kind of reality that you can imagine, robots will be doing your household chores and the war of the century against the planet itself may or may not be starting. It's gonna be a really big shoe tonight!!!
@CR Spencer keep nonsense drivel to yourself amigo
CR Spencer profile picture
@iamback "keep nonsense drivel to yourself amigo"
How to be illiterate in 2 languages at once.
Well, another SA author has said we face more downside until Musk finishes selling his next $5B in shares by year’s end. TSLA investors don’t seem to care how many millions of shares Elon sells or what he may say that should negatively impact the company, he gets a pass and top dollar on his sold shares because the price doesn’t drop in unison with the selling, go figure.
@sarge101abn: Learn a little arithmetic. Learn a little economic reality. Realize Musk has more Tesla shares even with the tax selling.

In short: WAKE UP.
@MaxedOutMama @Bill Cunningham @cparmerlee @Vantablack
Elon Musk is personally going to buy 20% of VW from the Porsche family after the IPO of the Porsche segment. In return, VW will use Tesla batteries and software in order to minimize their EV transformation cost.
EV_supporter profile picture

Elon/Tesla wouldn't take VW for free. It has very low value from Tesla's point of view.
FlagFootballSaint profile picture

Why would he do that?
His focus is on SpaceX - he will not be interested in a struggling legacy automaker, especially not in the one with the most complex ownership structure and by far strongest Union

VW does not offer anything to the investor Musk
Captain Crook profile picture
China already has the capacity to deliver more than 600 000 vehicles a year, even if TMY still is and will be increasing production. I guess China might reach 650-700 000 vehicles in 2022.
Fremont should be able to 'push out' at least 500 000 TM3 & TMY + 10 000 TMS & TMX or a total of at least 600 000 vehicles.
GigaTexas will become the major production unit for Tesla from 2022 and onwards. Keeping a fairly conservative figure for next year, they should at least manage to produce some 250 000 TMY's, some 30-40 000 Cybertrucks, a limited amount of Roaders 2's, and some Simi's.
That leaves GigaBerlin, they might only manage 300 000 TMY's, but my expectations are higher.
Bottom line. If Tesla produces and delivers less than 2 mil vehicles next year, I'll be very disappointed!
Maxed Out Mama profile picture
@Captain Crook Tesla is not even trying to crank it up this fast - and supply issues probably prevent them from doing so.

The Berlin factory will start next year. The latest estimate I saw was 30K vehicles in the first half.


"Im Grünheide Werk sollen laut „Automobilwoche“ ab Januar zunächst 1.000 Einheiten pro Woche gefertigt und die Produktion dann zügig hochgefahren werden, sodass im ersten Halbjahr 30.000 Fahrzeuge vom Band rollen könnten."

This comes from Automobilwoche, but they are getting it by talking to workers, and when they reported months ago that production would not start this year they turned out to be correct.

I don't expect Berlin to do anything significant until March. I think the most Tesla is targeting from Berlin in 2022 would be 70K cars.

There's a court battle currently about water, so that will be resolved first. They should receive the final permission soon, but apparently Tesla still has not submitted the required hazmat reports, so that is holding things up. Maybe Tesla won't do that until next year. Everything screams that Tesla is delaying the plant itself - according to the original report from Automobilwoche months ago, Musk made the decision to delay production start until January.

I wonder about Austin. We don't hear much about it. I thought they would be doing something in December.
@Captain Crook I don’t think Berlin/Texas can even reach a weekly run rate equivalent to 400k by end of 2022.. Also CT will be limited numbers, best case quad motor deliveries in Q4 ‘22.
"I don't expect Berlin to do anything significant until March. I think the most Tesla is targeting from Berlin in 2022 would be 70K cars."

So Tesla is going to hire 12k to produce 70k EVs in one year? Why would Tesla turn down the EU battery subsidies if they were not in a hurry? I will remind you of this comment in another six months but I am sure you will ignore it like you've done with all your other predictions.
Here is a prediction for you: Tesla is going to build a completely separate German battery plant within the next twelve months.
Did you see Kim Jong Musk on tv trying to reason why he should be our new king and not the horrible elected government of fools....hilarious in a very sad way...
@Bassben that is what I thought about your first sentence.
Sermer profile picture
Nah not 50%. If they pull off FSD it will be far more. I'm not a big fan of 1-year PT predictions as there are too many variables but my 5-year target is $7-10T. TSLA is about to literally change the world but the bears refuse to see it.

Their loss...
EV_supporter profile picture

We want more bears on the short side.

They will donate another $200B.
Gestalt Capital profile picture
@Sermer Why stop at 7-10T? Why not 20T and just make it the size of the current US economy?
EV_supporter profile picture
@Gestalt Capital

Haha, in 2035 when you revisit your post, you might find out you were right on the mark. Ironic, isn't it? Combined with share repurchase, the stock could reach $39k.

It's so sad bears can't make money on the long side with such an amazing company. They already missed the first 300X. They are determined to miss the next 40x.
James Hanshaw profile picture
The danger I wrote about recently will simply get greater if that price forecast target correct seekingalpha.com/...

Strange insiders are still not buying and E Musk is still selling
captainccs profile picture
@James Hanshaw "Strange insiders are still not buying and E Musk is still selling"

I guess you didn't get the message, if you can buy cheap stock via stock options, why buy expensive stock on the open market? Tesla insiders are not financial morons!
Larry Hall profile picture
@James Hanshaw Really don't have an understanding of the expansion of capability, production, battery technology, production and demand. Musk's selling has been vastly overrated. Tesla stock is only going to go up from here - with some downturns inevitable along the path.
@James Hanshaw: Strange how your ilk keeps deliberately mischaracterizing the Musk selling. But if that's all you have, go for it. No doubt, it will work as well as it has for the past decade.
Valber profile picture
Tesla is the "value" play now in EV.

As to those bearish on Tesla - there are plenty of virtuous cycle pretenders in tech during this forward-growth favoring market cycle - why bet against the granddaddy champion of virtuous cycle growth..
Should have opened that factory in the UK the EU will bog it down in red tape.
That’s why we left
@sergeant major x and look where it got you .
FlagFootballSaint profile picture

Good answer. Thanks.
@sergeant major x: If Brandenburg doesn't work out as well as hoped, they can always do future expansions someplace like Poland with far lower costs and less intrusive government idiots.

I suspect it will work out over time, DESPITE Brandenburg officials, but I disagree with Musk's decision to sign up for all the pain and risk and high costs, with nearby better alternatives so obvious.

But time will tell. With investments, like everything else, the future is uncertain. Musk has lots of issues, but he DOES learn and improve things over time.
Gestalt Capital profile picture
Quick, someone tell Elon to stop selling. His stock has 50% upside and he doesn't even realize it.
@Gestalt Capital Elon has increased in share holdings, despite some sales to pay taxes.
Gestalt Capital profile picture
@WillLong I'm just being playful. He has sold more than 10B worth of stock. Which apparently is going to be worth 5B more in 12 months. I just thought someone should let him know that he made a mistake.
@Gestalt Capital how many companies have you started other than fantasy lawn business , or paper boy , inc
Tesla is up more than 1500% over the past three years, and it's still not too late. Don't get vooched.
@kidthump What's wrong with that guy? It's like he's into self-inflicted pain.
Actually, TSLA will hit $1897 by the end of 2022.
@djmv215 I hope so
Legacy Legends, LLC profile picture
We got our $1200 this year, we will see $1500 easily within 12 months, use your brain!

Wait it gets better, $1500/share will turn into $15,000/share+ long term.

EV_supporter profile picture
@sergeant major x

You don't have to dream. Just do some real research, future cash flow estimates, etc. I bet TSLA will be way above $20k in the long run. I bet with real money. 43 shares all in.
@Blackboxtrader1 I hold 250 bought below $450 and I ain’t selling

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