Tesla is poised for 50% breakout higher off strong 2022 catalysts - New Street Research
Win McNamee/Getty Images News
- New Street Research boosts its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $1,580 to mark a new Street high.
- Analyst Pierre Ferragu and team point to multiple strong catalysts for Tesla (TSLA) in looking ahead to 2022. Tesla (TSLA) is seen ending this year with an annualized production run-rate of well above 1M units and being likely to deliver a strong Q4 earnings beat. Production out of Berlin and Texas is anticipated to ramp during the year to help the automaker hit 1.5M total deliveries vs. 1.4M consensus and margins are seen cracking the 30% level by the end of the year, despite the ramp of the two factories. Further manufacturing efficiency improvements could help in that regard.
- Expect to hear more 4680 talk with Tesla in the year ahead. "We expect 4680 production to be in full swing by year end and grow rapidly from there, and new sites to break ground in order to maintain ~50% annual growth," previews Ferragu.
- New Street Research's price target of $1,580 is based on TSLA trading comfortably at the higher end of the 50X to 100X P/E range. The PT reps right at 50% upside for Tesla (TSLA) from yesterday's closing price and is well in front of the all-time high of $1,243.49.
- Shares of Tesla are up 0.05% premarket to $1,052.31.
- TSLA has the highest Seeking Alpha Quant Rating of all the EV names.
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Comments (346)
Did you lose the current Tesla logo again? 🙃blog.logomyway.com/...
MUSKRAT AND HIS ANTICS BROUGHT TO BOOK.... AGAIN !!
(AND THIS TIME THE NHTSA WILL SHOW NO MERCY)
WATCH THE 50%BREAKOUT TO THE DOWNSIDE !! WHEN THIS HITS MAINSTREAM MEDIA!!Tesla drivers playing video games: NHTSA opens investigation
Tesla owner files complaint to the feds: 'Somebody’s going to get killed'
LINK FYI ABOUT THE EGREGIOUS CONTEMPT OF SAFETY BY MUSKTRAT!!www.autoblog.com/...On Wednesday, NHTSA confirmed that it's looking into the matter. News of Patton’s complaint was first reported Tuesday by The New York Times.
“We are aware of driver concerns and are discussing the feature with the manufacturer,” a NHTSA spokeswoman wrote in an email. “The Vehicle Safety Act prohibits manufacturers from selling vehicles with design defects posing unreasonable risks to safety.”
The spokeswoman declined to provide further details of its conversations with Tesla. The agency has not opened a formal investigation, which would involve requests for documents and other detailed information. Tesla, which has disbanded its media relations department, did not respond to messages from The Associated Press.
NHTSA's inquiry marks the latest in a growing list of possible infractions involving advanced auto technology that are being reviewed by two federal agencies as potential safety risks.
The government is looking into Tesla's Autopilot partially automated driving system, as well as its “Full Self-Driving” software system, which is being tested by selected owners on public roads. In addition, as it increases scrutiny under President Joe Biden, NHTSA is investigating over-the-internet software updates that are intended to fix safety problems and Tesla battery fires.
(AND THIS TIME THE NHTSA WILL SHOW NO MERCY)
WATCH THE 50%BREAKOUT TO THE DOWNSIDE !! WHEN THIS HITS MAINSTREAM MEDIA!!Tesla drivers playing video games: NHTSA opens investigation
Tesla owner files complaint to the feds: 'Somebody’s going to get killed'
LINK FYI ABOUT THE EGREGIOUS CONTEMPT OF SAFETY BY MUSKTRAT!!www.autoblog.com/...On Wednesday, NHTSA confirmed that it's looking into the matter. News of Patton’s complaint was first reported Tuesday by The New York Times.
“We are aware of driver concerns and are discussing the feature with the manufacturer,” a NHTSA spokeswoman wrote in an email. “The Vehicle Safety Act prohibits manufacturers from selling vehicles with design defects posing unreasonable risks to safety.”
The spokeswoman declined to provide further details of its conversations with Tesla. The agency has not opened a formal investigation, which would involve requests for documents and other detailed information. Tesla, which has disbanded its media relations department, did not respond to messages from The Associated Press.
NHTSA's inquiry marks the latest in a growing list of possible infractions involving advanced auto technology that are being reviewed by two federal agencies as potential safety risks.
The government is looking into Tesla's Autopilot partially automated driving system, as well as its “Full Self-Driving” software system, which is being tested by selected owners on public roads. In addition, as it increases scrutiny under President Joe Biden, NHTSA is investigating over-the-internet software updates that are intended to fix safety problems and Tesla battery fires.
@Sunil Shah Not sure why Seeking Alpha has zero coverage of this.Readers get the latest Elon Musk tweet but there is nothing on another NHTSA inquiry.Strange days indeed.
@Sunil Shah You missed your calling. Such shock and outrage. Should have been a sports commentator. At least this isn't printed on paper because it would be an outrage to kill trees for the sake of a few faulty sensors. Fires are significant but I imagine the time that has been spent reading about those few fires mentioned over and over far exceeds the lifetimes of the people involved in them.
@deercreekvols well it's not, IMO, an SA bias, but what readers point out to SA Editors, (as SA cant find e'thing themselves and rely on leads)
And there is an overwhelming ratio of Tesla bulls vs bears on SA.
And there is an overwhelming ratio of Tesla bulls vs bears on SA.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Thursday that it is communicating with Tesla regarding faulty Autopilot cameras in some of the electric vehicles the company produced in Fremont, California.As CNBC reported on Monday, Tesla is replacing repeater cameras in some of its U.S.-made vehicles after finding faulty printed circuit boards inside. The company has not issued a voluntary recall thus far but is handling replacements on a goodwill basis for eligible customers.Funny how this news flew under the Seeking Alpha radar but Tweets from Elon Musk are newsworthy on this site.Be aware. Beware.
@deercreekvols BUT TELSA IS GONNA BREAKOUT BY 50% !!!
TO THE DOWNSIDE, IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS IMO.
TO THE DOWNSIDE, IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS IMO.
"Tesla is poised for 50% breakout"
It sure is, BUT ON THE DOWNSIDE!!
YOU DO KNOW :
TESLA MARKET VALUE IS > ALL ICE AND EV COMPANIES COMBINED!!!
sooo funny!!
MEME MADNESS TO THE MOON !!!
lol
It sure is, BUT ON THE DOWNSIDE!!
YOU DO KNOW :
TESLA MARKET VALUE IS > ALL ICE AND EV COMPANIES COMBINED!!!
sooo funny!!
MEME MADNESS TO THE MOON !!!
lol
@bmeier.vonmod Tesla is not delivering S/X in Europe, so I don't think this is a valid comparison.
@dmzporter Well, at this point in time, yes. If Tesla were to even produce 100K cars at Brandenburg next year, they would have to do something else with at least 75K cars produced in Shanghai. I really don't know what that would be. They could keep shipping the Model 3s to Europe from Shanghai next year, and I assume they will. I do think Tesla runs into a problem next year with the capacity, but since I expect Brandenburg to start late and slow, maybe it is not such a big problem. I think they will bring up Austin in the first quarter (maybe a few token cars produced this quarter) and then start working on Brandenburg. It's horrible circs in Germany to bring up a factory anyway, considering the latest viral wave, so they shouldn't even try. Later in 2022 supply issues should ease up a bit too. Tesla needs more products to make in four factories. We are waiting to hear from them on what those will be and when. We certainly know those new products won't include a 25K self-driving "World Car" without a steering wheel or brake pedals!Maybe they will get the CT going next year. Maybe not. We'll have to wait and see what they say about their plans in January when they report results. Tesla could not have foreseen the supply problems when they started Brandenburg, but the decision to go for Austin seems to have been a bit premature, unless they really want to write off Fremont.
From electric cars, trucks and solar generation to self-driving cars, and personal robots. What's next; boats, submarines, airplanes, lunar rovers? What a stock! And every year short sellers put it on sale for a big discount. What a time to buy stocks. Tesla's convinced the whole automotive establishment to go electric, companies are going to outer space, computers can build any kind of reality that you can imagine, robots will be doing your household chores and the war of the century against the planet itself may or may not be starting. It's gonna be a really big shoe tonight!!!
@iamback "keep nonsense drivel to yourself amigo"
How to be illiterate in 2 languages at once.
How to be illiterate in 2 languages at once.
@Vantablack Elon/Tesla wouldn't take VW for free. It has very low value from Tesla's point of view.
@Vantablack Why would he do that?
His focus is on SpaceX - he will not be interested in a struggling legacy automaker, especially not in the one with the most complex ownership structure and by far strongest Union VW does not offer anything to the investor Musk
His focus is on SpaceX - he will not be interested in a struggling legacy automaker, especially not in the one with the most complex ownership structure and by far strongest Union VW does not offer anything to the investor Musk
China already has the capacity to deliver more than 600 000 vehicles a year, even if TMY still is and will be increasing production. I guess China might reach 650-700 000 vehicles in 2022.
Fremont should be able to 'push out' at least 500 000 TM3 & TMY + 10 000 TMS & TMX or a total of at least 600 000 vehicles.
GigaTexas will become the major production unit for Tesla from 2022 and onwards. Keeping a fairly conservative figure for next year, they should at least manage to produce some 250 000 TMY's, some 30-40 000 Cybertrucks, a limited amount of Roaders 2's, and some Simi's.
That leaves GigaBerlin, they might only manage 300 000 TMY's, but my expectations are higher.
Bottom line. If Tesla produces and delivers less than 2 mil vehicles next year, I'll be very disappointed!
Fremont should be able to 'push out' at least 500 000 TM3 & TMY + 10 000 TMS & TMX or a total of at least 600 000 vehicles.
GigaTexas will become the major production unit for Tesla from 2022 and onwards. Keeping a fairly conservative figure for next year, they should at least manage to produce some 250 000 TMY's, some 30-40 000 Cybertrucks, a limited amount of Roaders 2's, and some Simi's.
That leaves GigaBerlin, they might only manage 300 000 TMY's, but my expectations are higher.
Bottom line. If Tesla produces and delivers less than 2 mil vehicles next year, I'll be very disappointed!
@Captain Crook Tesla is not even trying to crank it up this fast - and supply issues probably prevent them from doing so. The Berlin factory will start next year. The latest estimate I saw was 30K vehicles in the first half. www.tagesspiegel.de/..."Im Grünheide Werk sollen laut „Automobilwoche“ ab Januar zunächst 1.000 Einheiten pro Woche gefertigt und die Produktion dann zügig hochgefahren werden, sodass im ersten Halbjahr 30.000 Fahrzeuge vom Band rollen könnten."This comes from Automobilwoche, but they are getting it by talking to workers, and when they reported months ago that production would not start this year they turned out to be correct. I don't expect Berlin to do anything significant until March. I think the most Tesla is targeting from Berlin in 2022 would be 70K cars. There's a court battle currently about water, so that will be resolved first. They should receive the final permission soon, but apparently Tesla still has not submitted the required hazmat reports, so that is holding things up. Maybe Tesla won't do that until next year. Everything screams that Tesla is delaying the plant itself - according to the original report from Automobilwoche months ago, Musk made the decision to delay production start until January. I wonder about Austin. We don't hear much about it. I thought they would be doing something in December.
Nah not 50%. If they pull off FSD it will be far more. I'm not a big fan of 1-year PT predictions as there are too many variables but my 5-year target is $7-10T. TSLA is about to literally change the world but the bears refuse to see it.Their loss...
@Sermer Why stop at 7-10T? Why not 20T and just make it the size of the current US economy?
@Gestalt Capital Haha, in 2035 when you revisit your post, you might find out you were right on the mark. Ironic, isn't it? Combined with share repurchase, the stock could reach $39k.It's so sad bears can't make money on the long side with such an amazing company. They already missed the first 300X. They are determined to miss the next 40x.
The danger I wrote about recently will simply get greater if that price forecast target correct seekingalpha.com/...Strange insiders are still not buying and E Musk is still selling
@James Hanshaw "Strange insiders are still not buying and E Musk is still selling"I guess you didn't get the message, if you can buy cheap stock via stock options, why buy expensive stock on the open market? Tesla insiders are not financial morons!
@James Hanshaw Really don't have an understanding of the expansion of capability, production, battery technology, production and demand. Musk's selling has been vastly overrated. Tesla stock is only going to go up from here - with some downturns inevitable along the path.
Tesla is the "value" play now in EV.As to those bearish on Tesla - there are plenty of virtuous cycle pretenders in tech during this forward-growth favoring market cycle - why bet against the granddaddy champion of virtuous cycle growth..
Quick, someone tell Elon to stop selling. His stock has 50% upside and he doesn't even realize it.
@WillLong I'm just being playful. He has sold more than 10B worth of stock. Which apparently is going to be worth 5B more in 12 months. I just thought someone should let him know that he made a mistake.
We got our $1200 this year, we will see $1500 easily within 12 months, use your brain! Wait it gets better, $1500/share will turn into $15,000/share+ long term.Long!
@sergeant major x You don't have to dream. Just do some real research, future cash flow estimates, etc. I bet TSLA will be way above $20k in the long run. I bet with real money. 43 shares all in.