Astra Space 'headed for dis-astra,' Kerrisdale says in short report

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• Astra Space (ASTR -9.1%) slumps to an all-time low after Kerrisdale Capital slammed the company in a short report, saying it is "poorly positioned within an overcrowded market for small launch vehicles."
• "Astra's investor pitch boils down to selling the pipe dream of an unprecedented number of cheap rocket launches," Kerrisdale writes, but "A reality check is in order: To date, Astra has managed just one successful orbital test flight."
• "If Astra's five-year projection of almost daily successful launches of rockets made with non-aerospace grade parts does not sound improbable enough... not one expert whom we interviewed, nor any independent market study we reviewed, offered any reason to think that, industry-wide, sufficient market demand will exist for Astra to sustain approximately daily launches by 2035, let alone 2025."
• Astra Space said earlier this month that it plans to deploy its first satellite in orbit for NASA in January.

Comments

[StrawberryDream]

What a shock.Bill Gates and other investors haven’t sold 90 million shares they own that are available for sale today!

Perhaps they have a longer term outlook in a very nascent space market, where frankly nobody knows where it is going TAM wise and use wise in the future.Shock horror : Not even Elon Musk.

There is a good shot Astra at this marketcap and with its ceo, expertise and pro investor base will get a share though.

It has proved its concept and only a few companies have so far.That is a huge engineering task and a moat to other incoming companies I would say.They did it pretty quickly too.

Next launch coming up January.

[Dave Dasgupta]

ASTR is nothing but a scam....it's poised for a flame out in short order. Polyakov is a smooth charming snake oil salesman. He can sell you the Brooklyn Bridge and you'd not even know you've been had.

[Tatech]

@Dave Dasgupta

Polyakov is gone...out...persona non grata via USA...

[NotAnInfluencer]

RKLB > ASTR

[Tatech]

Astra should merge with Firefly...Polyakov is out.

[Jamjack]

Not selling ASTRA or HYZN.

[a1laminate]

I have been an investor for year and was previously an investor with ASTRA. This article screams of a hit piece on ASTR. This company is technically a start up and would not be available to invest in, for the common investor, if it weren’t for SPACs. My interest is peaked now to get back in on ASTR

[trentbridge]

"non-aerospace grade parts" - this is just like requiring premium gasoline when regular will do. The Astra rocket isn't reusable. As long as it works for about 3 minutes, it has done its job.
Aero-space grade parts means expensive and engineered to not fail. If you are targeting the cheap end of the launcher business then you accept one in ten fails to reach orbit OR you pay ten times the amount for each part to make it aero-space grade. As Ashley Vance said in his bio of Musk - the aerospace industry was used to building the rocket equivalent of a Ferrari when SpaceX thought the same job could be done with a Honda Accord.

[heinet]

@trentbridge agree completely. The report looks written with a pre-formed conclusion using facts about the technology and industry the author doesn’t understand to achieve a message. My sympathies to those who short ASTRA.

[andrekstar]

Someone is shorting hard! I wonder who it is. Astra has deep pocket backers.... something is fishy here?????

[Revenue Multiplier]

Between the warranties expiring and this report this is a pretty rough week for ASTR. However, they do have a launch planned in January. Anyone else thinking the launch will be a short squeeze?

[StockMarketMorty]

@Revenue Multiplier Maybe with a successful payload deployment. Every launch wont see massive spikes IMO. The first couple after merge did, with the goal of a successful orbital launch. They got it 2nd try and now the stock is at record lows. Both launches turned out to be buy the rumor, sell the news events and I dont see that changing. Diminishing returns will kick in the more launches they have in terms of immediate price pops. Just my view of the matter.

[shortboca]

@Revenue Multiplier There are lots of small operators, but this one is based in the US and if successful will have government contracts like the one they worked out with the Space Force.

[Revenue Multiplier]

@StockMarketMorty thanks. Agreed what ever happens in January will be quick up and down

[Retire Junkie]

www.cnbc.com/...

[Exqueeze_Me]

@Retire Junkie 😂🤣

[StockMarketMorty]

@Retire Junkie out of cocaine money? pick a company, sell short, release report....now you have cocaine money again!

[Jamjack]

Snort...snort, I think I'll write a short report...snort, snort.

[StockMarketMorty]

look mom, another short report written for financial gain causing an overreaction....NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE A DEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP

[Tambo210]

So I guess this is an analyst telling clients to short

[mexec1]

Backing up the truck!

[BasedCapitalist]

Nobody can predict what's going to be needed in 2035. Maybe Astra will be providing daily launches to the moon.

[Exqueeze_Me]

How damaging is this report tho?
Did Astra ever claim they needed to launch 300 times per year to be a profitable company?
We already know Astra uses “off the shelf” parts rather than reusable parts. “Single use” is their cost effective intention.

Astra has a plan to fill a niche for low-earth and small scale satellites. So, yeah, the rockets are small.

Their claim is that they can launch frequently and cost effectively, which will provide timely accessibility to clients without being on a competitor’s waiting list for years.

[TigerCub911]

I have 10 shares of $ASTR just to mark in my portfolio and made a mistake of buying another 90 shares a few minutes ago without realizing the short report. Now I'm going to have to sell January 21 $5 covered call just in case it goes down more. I think long term $ASTR might have a chance but shorts could destroy $ASTR in the short term

[TigerCub911]

@TigerCub911 If $ASTR stays above $5 by January $21 I will break even with no loss. If it goes down to below $5 then I'll have to rethink a different strategy...

[Evilbred]

@TigerCub911 They're not likely going below $5, and I seriously doubt they'll be below $5 by 21 Jan, unless their next launch fails, in which case, it could be going to $0

[Catduck]

Short reports should be illegal

[Another Mountain's Rock Investing]

@Catduck it's illegal to have an opinion and very valid points?

[Stephen Philp]

@another Mountain's Rock Investing only candy and rainbows allowed

[timjwidner]

Long Rocket Lab 🚀

[CovLad]

Just stay away from ASTS

[lost it all in jellybean futures]

when will the SPAC ripoffs stop?

is there a single investible SPAC at this point?

[AI STONKS]

@lost it all in jellybean futures I don’t know seems like the answer is no.. this is some of the ugliest action I’ve ever seen

[BERKIT]

@lost it all in jellybean futures they'll come back, BGRY can definitely make a comeback with only a couple of contracts. Automated fulfillment and supply chain will be hot in January. PL also has a solid chance to make strong quarterly revenue. Rocket Labs is probably a year or so away.

[LT Capital Gains]

@SrupB You must be new then