Tesla races to nine-week high as deliveries expectations soar

Spencer Platt/Getty Images News

• Morgan Stanley says Tesla (TSLA +11.6%) delivering 2M vehicles this year to customers is a stretch target that is on the table after the automaker tallied 308K deliveries in Q4 of 2021 amid supply chain pressures.
• Analyst Adam Jonas also sees a plant mix benefit as Tesla produces vehicles from locations other than Fremont.
• "While not disclosed by the company we estimate there to be as high as a 2,000bp gross margin differential between Fremont (approx 20pct) and Shanghai (approx 40 pct)," he notes.
• "The opening of the Berlin and Austin plants offers an opportunity to achieve even higher gross margins, which we expect Tesla to eventually reinvest into product, service/network expansion and price," he adds.
• Jonas and team think the ultimate direction of Tesla shares in FY22 will be driven by the ramp and economics of Giga Berlin and Austin, commercialization of the 4680 structural pack, as well as potential geographic expansion in India, Australia, Vietnam, Russia and other parts of Europe.
• Morgan Stanley sits with an Overweight rating on Tesla and price target of $1,200.
• Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) trade at a nine-week high. Read about other EV stocks that are on the move today.

Comments

[p.investment]

Maybe 70K sold in China. Meaning maybe production of 75-80? Meaning plus 900K annually JUST FROM CHINA. Wow

[mwilson801]

I see a car company delivering cars (and then recalling some).
I see the same boner run I saw in early 2021, and you know how it ended.
And then again in October 2021, and you know how that one ended too.
And I can't help but think of all the m0r0ns that thought 900 or 1200 were good entry points back then and exited in loss somewhere in the backside pukes.
I don't remember any of them commenting here.
This is not an investment. Just as the sh#tcoins aren't an investment.
Just trades overcrowded with m0r0ns.
They all tend to end alike.

[CKut]

@mwilson801 By definition, any equity, fixed income, cryptocurrency, etc. is an investment.

[Larry Hall]

@mwilson801 Helpful comment filled with respect and glowing with intelligence.

[Mountain Walker]

@mwilson801
A lot of money can be made trading Tesla but it is certainly dangerous.

[DomL]

this is the short of a lifetime! I've never seen a tesla on the road, and nor will I buy one. Where are they all? Maybe being produced and destroyed?!

[Fangorn]

@DomL Really? You've never seen one? It's only in the last 8 months or so I've noticed them here in UK, and it's now a regular occurence - 5-10 a day now. The German manufacturers still the majority though. Traditional ICE.

[mwilson801]

I remember having read that Tesla's model 3 was the bestselling vehicle (vehicle, not only among EVs) in Europe at some point in Q4.

[CKut]

@DomL Do you live in Antarctica?

[FirstFIREWealth_P01135809]

Repeatedly and consistently so by Investing4FIRE: $1500 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Joe Biden stock market has started the year on a bang! 401ks were made great again in 2021 by President Biden! Let's keep them great! 🚀🚀🚀

[Reidar Herreid]

@Investing4FIRE Joe Biden has nothing to do with tesla. He does not even mention tesla. Apparently GM is moving America forward with their amazing electric vehicles. "you're changing the whole story mary! You lead and it matters!"

[lappygums]

@Investing4FIRE actually, Biden is rather anti-tesla since they are not unionized....you know unions- destroy companies and productivity via power and corruption.

[Ramon_13]

@Reidar Herreid Biden (incorrectly) as always gets donations from the UAW unions to speak nonsense. Marry Barra/GM is NOT leading the EV industry. People actually believe this ???

[Gordonr]

The mkt pays up for growth!
Tesla’s got plenty of that!
And they’re in just the 3rd inning!
Go Tesla!

[bscott1369]

Still not too late for the haters and short-sighted to change course and hop on board.

Heck…we just gettin started!

[Larry Hall]

Today's price action, while not real meaningful in the long run, is certainly indicative of a wave of new TSLA investors that want in on the party. And I think many of them will stay. 4th quarter vehicle nos. shocked most to the upside, including some famous Tesla Bulls. Q4 earnings report will repeat the shock (in a nice way), and reinforce understanding that this is a unique company that will do things no company has done in a very long time. And if you believe that, then 1185 a share is still a reasonable entry point.

[Pale Blue Dot Research]

2M vehicles is not realistic. These factories don't ramp instantly especially with new design processes like 3 piece castings, 4680 integrated packs etc. that need to be ironed out before they show their true production efficiency and speed.

[InvestInMETA]

@Pale Blue Dot Research They already have over 1.2M vehicles per year locked in if they just maintain current production levels. And with 2 new gigas coming online, 2M is within grasp. Not that hard to justify at this point...

[bscott1369]

@Pale Blue Dot Research Elon’s team operate in warp speed, “agile.”

It’ll get ‘er done!

[Pale Blue Dot Research]

@bscott1369 they can't deliver more than they can service. We'll see how fast they can ramp all customer touchpoints and cell factories.

[InvestInMETA]

Another days of bears doomin' and gloomin'... another day of TSLA 11% in the green... lol

[Who Moved My Cheese]

@jgoldston0 Bulls and bears don't apply to meme stocks. No more than they would to AMC or Gamestop.

[MojoRisin1]

@jgoldston0 - What a brutal day for the TSLA bears with all the articles on SA being positive for TSLA. I can picture them all just fuming.

[InvestInMETA]

@Casino Hop Daddy lol... he still calls TSLA a memestock

[Legacy Legends, LLC]

Buy and hold!

Long!

[Fuyuki Wataru]

Wallstreet seems to like giving low numbers so Tesla can beat it, and will run-up. Perhaps it's time they give it a reasonable target? Not yearly targets, but quarterly because those have more body.

[Pale Blue Dot Research]

@Fuyuki Wataru according to the bears there is a demand implosion because Tesla is losing market share to competition which would actually make these analyst estimates pretty reasonable in light of these so called "facts". If bears are right, so are these analysts estimates.

[Trebby]

@Pale Blue Dot Research Love it!! How can a bear say the stock is in disarray and falling apart then say Analysts keep choosing lower estimates, you know because this a conspiracy. Hush Hush.

[InvestInMETA]

@Pale Blue Dot Research What competition? 80 million vehicles are sold in the world, per year. With this number transitioning entirely to EVs... other automakers can capture market share and Tesla's numbers from today will still grow exponentially. These competition rumblings are grotesquely overrated.

[Tim Apple]

EV stocks are going to do very well in 2022 across the board.

[Who Moved My Cheese]

So the baseline is 2000% overvalued. Any new news, tweets or meme blasts regardless of content sends it soaring even more.

[kan2905]

@Casino Hop Daddy no, the baseline is 50% undervalued.

[Reidar Herreid]

@Casino Hop Daddy let me guess. Its needs to be at 90 dollars a share for fair value. Good luck!

[Destined 4...]

This is a pretty good stock, I think. Glad I bought it.

[magenta17]

@Destined 4... LOL! Pretty good, you mean VERY GOOD! Up $130 right now!!!

[shaderhacker]

@magenta17 I wouldn't be that excited about this climb today. It's only getting back to where it was for the bad Sept/Dec months that took it for a nosedive.

[magenta17]

@shaderhacker who's saying it's done going up? Seriously, doubt it!😉