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U.S. legal cannabis sales grew 40% in 2021 - BofA

Selection of cannabis and legal medical recreational retail store

Zenkyphoto/iStock via Getty Images

  • Legal sales of cannabis in the U.S. grew 40% in 2021 to $25B, according to research from BofA Securities.
  • Global legal cannabis sales grew to $31B.
  • However, analyst Lisa Lewandowski expects consumer packaged good companies to

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Comments (101)

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T
Does anyone know what is the name of the research publication that this article is referring to and when it came out?
R
Did anybody notice the unusual movement in VRNOF stock today where in the last 30 minutes of trade it jumped from $11.35 to $12.25 and closed at $12.09 on volume of 625,000 shares (daily average 530,000) with 175,000 shares moving in the last 30 mins.

VRNOF is starting to garner more attention from Cannabis Investors and this should only increase over the next 4 months (4/20/22) coming up. Democratic Senator Schumer will be introducing his Cannabis Reform Bill this month January/Feb. in the Senate and positive attention by the Media should make Cannabis stocks (especially profitable ones like VRNOF) come into the “Limelight”. Money is starting to change Sectors (rotation) and VRNOF trades at Forward P/E of 12. They appear to have Good Management, Good States to operate in, Good Markets and Products, Good Balance Sheet. I can’t find anything wrong with this Company and they are my Number One Pick in the Cannabis Sector and by far the Biggest Holding in my Portfolio. These Guys will either get “Bought Out” or become a dominant player in Northeast and Southeast U.S. Markets as well as Mid West.

IMHO, this is the Company to currently Purchase or Hold going forward and especially if Momentum comes into play (Prospects of Legislation) pick up so will the share price for this Well Run Cannabis Company. The Charts show me the prospect of VRNOF appreciating to $15.50 in the next 30-45 days for an 29% share price gain. I added shares today at $11.40

Disclosure: I also Own TCNNF, GTBIF, AFCG, IIPR, CRLBF, GRAMF, HYFM, GRWG, ACRHF, ACRDF.

Wishing Well To Cannabis Investors!
Investor1546 profile picture
@Retired One do you have a source for Schumer reintroducing his bill in January or February or are you just guessing on this? I have not heard of this.
R
@Investor1546 To investor: I subscribe to NORML and Marijuana Moment. They claim to interview and receive tweets from Schumer. They have mentioned several times (over the last several months) that Schumer will be introducing his Legislation during the “Spring” Session. I have also read (in the past 4 months) that Schumer has said that “he hopes 4/20/22 will have special meaning this year”.

To Me, it only makes sense that if he has plans to try and pass a Bill thru the Senate that he would start 30-45 days before he would try and muster a Vote. Since 4/20 is only roughly 103 days from today, it seems that he would start talking about it by the end of Jan. or the beginning of Feb. I only hold Common shares so exact dates mean little to Me, whereas Option dates mean a lot (everything) to those who Deal in them. Basically, at this point I don’t want to “not be holding shares” when Schumer introduces his Bill. I will be paying particular attention to The Congressional Record and also DemocratsSenate.Gov. for a “tip off” on Bill introduction. We are closer to an introduction date as exemplified by Schumer eliminating SAFE from the NDAA (in Dec.) because he wants an “All or Nothing” type of Bill that covers all facets of Reformation and Legalization and he craves a spot in the History Books as the Author and Legislator of what will one day be considered Historic Legislation. As a matter of fact I purchased a large increase in my VRNOF shares today at $11.95 as I like this Company the best. I am of the opinion they will be bought out at an at least 40% premium to the share price when they are approached and announced. Suitors could include another MSO (like GTBIF or TCNNF) or Canadian (like Tilray or CGC) or even a Drug/Alcohol/Tobacco company like INBEV, PM, or a foreign drug company like BayerAg (German). An International entity wishing U.S. exposure would be my choice. PM (Philip Morris International) would be a good fit, as they are looking for New Products and access to U.S. Market (and not necessarily in partnership with ALTRIA also known as MO). Time will tell, but in the short term (next 3 months), I want to be loaded up in VRNOF, GTBIF, TCNNF and I want exposure in HYFM and CRLBF for Congressional News Related Momentum Trades. With Most All Cannabis companies at 52 week lows, and Market Rotations currently going on in NASDAQ, it seems reasonable that some of the money will migrate into Cannabis. JMHO.
Investor1546 profile picture
@Retired One makes a lot of sense. I never believe Schumer and his timelines especially considering the BBB plan is taking so long. I think you have a good plan and shares are very cheap now. I don’t think Verano would sell unless they were aquired for much more than 40% or merge with another US MSO. I like them, Cresco, Green Thumb, AYR, and Columbia Care.
H
Weed will take the addiction share from beer and wine as the legalization process continues. The biggest losers will be the addiction industries of beer/wine and other so-called "cultural" alcoholic drinks.
OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
@ddca48 Fair enough and thank you :-)

Awesome comment :-)

Please remember the psilocybin for alcoholics, too, please :-) For PTSD Vets and PTSD non-vets :-)

Replacements: yes, we've got wonderful botanical medicines inclusive of medicinal THC cannabis and medicinal hemp for what ails the millions and billions of us who put too many chemicals into our bodies :-)

Safety, Quality, Ethos :-)

International, Equitable, Inclusive, Regenerative, Restorative :-)

Cannabis is what we do with it :-)
Lawrence Dickman profile picture
I wouldn't dismiss Cresco Labs just yet. I have been in manufacturing for 40 years with different companies. Sometimes it is better to farm out processes and sometimes not. An example would be injection molding. We used to make our own parts for our assemblies. By farming out these parts we replaced the area with manufacturing that earned more per sq ft than the molding operation did.
D
@Lawrence Dickman Lawrence, can you elaborate. I didn't know Cresco was farming out anything. I hate their presence in California. Its a cash suck and race to zero. Go for meat and potatoes.
Robert Falcone profile picture
@Danjones1878 Cresco is a big wholesaler. Other cos. Are buying from them. Even the large msos sell the Mindy's line of gummies.
d
@Robert Falcone Cresco's Mindy Line of gummies are fantastic!
B
Big tobacco ;
$PM , invests into a Israel start up ..
$IMBBF oxford cannibinoil ( Oct ) ..

.Alcohol + cannabis ;
$TAP ='s $HEXO ..
$STZ ='s Canopy Growth .. ( $STZ ) ..
$TILRY ='s Breckinridge / Sweetwater Brewing ..
.
Big Pharma ;
J+J ='s Avicanna $AVCNF ...
ABBIE ='s Patents x 59 ? ... ( Dark Horse ) ..
$TEVA ='s Cannadoc / SLE .. Hmmmm ..
$BYRY sold GW pharma . to $JAZZ .. ( Good move , IMO ) ...
Article from 12-23-2021 ...
Big investors ;
$BRK.B , through Kraft / Heinz / Mondelelez for CBD products ..
.
**** Monsanto , also owned by $BRK , Genetically modified seeds , to try and corner this Market .. **** Noteworthy *** ..
.
$CRON partners with Ginkgo American Cannabis / Walmart distribution ? ...
Colgate / Palm. for CBD products . CBD ? .. H,
Hmmmm ..
Something to consider , IMO ...
Good luck to all invested .....
Source article , Benzinga , 12-23-2021 ...
Seems like there's things going on in the back round ? ...
No One published these concerns ...
Hmmmmm ...
A
@Balaland I hear you on those concerns and I raise you a few.
1) Altria alone generated enough free cash flow in 2021 to buy most tier 2 operators at current caps. What would that mean for the Tier 1s?

2) I don’t think anyone has adequately addressed the risks of interstate trade being allowed and what that means for these absurdly duplicative business models.
3) I’ve yet to hear anyone but you mention the possible concerns of Big Ag/pharma laying waste to MSOs by protecting IP they’ve silently acquired.
4) would uplisting of MSOs also allow these tobacco/alcohol /pharma/Ag companies to jump into the US market without federal legalization taking place.

I’m long this space but I think the overbullishness is blinding and doesn’t adequately consider a number of risks. Patience and discipline are paramount here.
S
@Always Fishin T2s are not going to sell at these valuations I promise you that.
K
@Always Fishin Overbullishness? Stocks are like amongst the worst performers in the market
Millennial Investment profile picture
People talk about bag holding. Maybe so on the short term. But if you are smart, you know not to put all your beans in one basket. I’m accumulating slowly in all of the above. Eventually federal legalization will happen and these companies are going to all pop 400%+ on hype (and uplisting). The market has a herd mentality.

While the companies may only get back to their former highs (pun not intended), if you buy in the dark times your cost average will be at a major price advantage.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure this out. Only patience. Quit trying to time the market.
d
@Millennial Investment Very good advice!
OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
It might not be the number that is reflective of growth but the "value" of the flower/products sold :-)

Most legal jurisdictions like FL, MA, IL and some others have what appear to be

unsustainable, exorbitant pricing

that patients and consumer-patients are turning away from and

instead combining low-priced

(for example, smokable medicinal hemp flower that is like famous medicinal THC flowers at about 1/10 the price:

www.bostonhempire.com/...

aretehemp.com/...

and more likely soon because this is ONE PART of the market which can be scale)

[I don't work for any company and I don't get a commission]

medicinal hemp;

sufficient medicinal THC - kief, bubble hash, or flower or other - to "extract" the medicinal value from the polyculture of flowers on the medicinal hemp market;

perhaps isolates like Delta 8, Delta 10, THC-O, HHC (these are sprayed or infused on to the medicinal hemp flowers);

Home grow;

local or distant OG growers from the "informal" market;

NOT just obtaining inputs from the medicinal THC monoculture exclusively =

perhaps polyculture will beat monoculture gradually and over time because

this is a polycultural medicinal plant and

trying to force market or force sell it as its BOOTLEG version

(based on the false conclusion that it can be sold like booze and/or tobacco)

might not be what makes patients Well = we need a polyculture of inputs :-)

If investors take pricing from ALL markets and convert them to OR market prices

then we might have an actual view of the "value" of the growth

as opposed to just the volume of the growth :-)

In other words, 2021 growth converted to OR market numbers is perhaps

a clearer and truer reflection of the actual value of the products;

the exorbitant pricing gives a distorted and inflated and perhaps false view of growth that

might fool some investors into thinking the Wellness market(s) is growing more than it might actually be :-(

The "Informal" market appears to be continuing and also appears to be improving its

safety and quality by

converting to "live soil" "Chemical free" Sun Grown for better terpenes and

LOWER PRODUCTION COSTS :-)

Most of corporate cannabis inexplicably is stubbornly refusing not to pivot perhaps because

they already invested huge amounts of money in their hydro infrastructure mistakes and

simply want to string things along until they "sell out" =

corporate cannabis doesn't really care about what it does and it shows :-(

Wonder if LIsa Lewandowski titrates cannabis,

is a cannabis patient,

or even talks to cannabis patients or

has family members or friends who are cannabis patients,

otherwise

without those direct connections to the Wellness industry

she appears to be another commodity metrics jockey who analyzes numbers but

doesn't know the products and how we titrate them:

she doesn't know what patients want/need and

therefore is making seemingly blind predictions for what might happen in the future :-(

Still amazing that corporate cannabis and corporate cannabis analysts like this are NOT simply talking to patients to determine what we need and what we can budget :-(

Some OG growers appear to be listening and some are not :-)

Some CRAFT growers appear to be listening and some are not :-)

Quite a lot of medicinal hemp growers appear to be listening and a few are not :-)

As patients we are going to purchase from the folks who appear to be listening and growing what we need and what we can afford and

we are becoming friends and

help those people to by finding our voices gradually to explain what we hope to get,

participating in their CSAs,

and buying consistently from them and

giving them feedback about how to

make their offerings even better for a wider variety of patients :-)

Many patients will probably gravitate to the people who listen because

we can see through

the glitzy packaging,

the pointless idea that celebrities can tell us what medicine to buy,

the hype about trendy flowers,

the corporate shirts and decorations at some dispensaries,

and the notion that people in business who do NOT titrate cannabis can

know enough about it to be accurately responsive to patients' needs :-)

Patients see through marketing because it is money being wasted on things that are NOT important to us;

when the "hype" train grinds to a halt in the near future or some time in the future,

the companies/farms/growers which reached out and elicited responses from the voices of patients might be the companies that have

NOT markets but communities of patients to sell to :-)

It is not difficult please :-)

Safety, Quality, Ethos :-)

International, Equitable, Inclusive, Regenerative, Restorative :-)

The possible irony which might be comical if it weren't actually serious is that

IF Wellness companies lobbied for HOME CULTIVATION and

got it for patients in a legal jurisdiction then

yes we would grow a lot of cannabis but

we would also buy gear from the companies which supported HOME CULTIVATION because

they showed us that they understand we like to grow the plant

and we derive more medicinal benefits from the plant

when we grow it microbially in "live soil" and "Chemical free" and Sun Grown :-)

One of the flaws of corporate cannabis which persists is that

they are trying to defeat the "informal" market

which includes our caregivers

(who we value greatly and are our friends),

local and distant OG growers

(who teach us through podcasts and who we like for supporting Learning and Sharing the Learning),

and local and distant CRAFT growers

(who teach and inspire us to develop our medicinal relationships with the plant)

and trying to put these people out of business and hurting them is something as patients we do not like or appreciate :-(

That growth and any projected growth might start to dissolve or wane if corporate cannabis continues

to bully and

try to willfully hurt local growers and local farmers and local patients and local communities :-(

It is already happening in many legal jurisdictions,

patients and consumer-patients have been looking at corporate cannabis for a few years and it doesn't really seem to be that friendly because

they won't see patients as important enough to even listen to and ask what we need :-(

Patients will interact with those who understand what medicinal needs we have :-)
D
@DualRootZoneAquaponics2022 Sorry, what is your overall point here? Do you like Cresco, do you like writing long emails? Sorry, lost you way back at the start.
OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
@Danjones1878 Fair enough and thank you :-)

Corporate cannabis appears that they might be making some crucial errors with examples of these errors :-)
A
States like FL will 5x sales over night when rec laws are passed.
Us MSO’s have the potential to be massively profitable with massive growth rates.
It’s only a matter of time before the market picks up on stocks like TCNNF trading at 20 P/E with monster growth
S
@All-in-MSOS Hi can you provide the source of the 5x projection? Thank you!
Investor1546 profile picture
@Spiritus fermenti there is probably no source for that. I think he is just guestimatting. It will be a large increase. Definitely not 5x immediately but overtime recreational will dominate medical sales.
A
@Spiritus fermenti my source is the 9/10 of my friends who still shop illegally because no one wants to get a med card. Estimates are way too low
colorado buff profile picture
USA 90-100 billion industry
Shamanski profile picture
US cannabis is one of the fastest growing industries in the world.

On top of that several states are still going to legalize in the coming years.
The valuations of these stock is an absolute joke. GTI and Trulieve have some of the cheapest yet profitable high growth in the world.

GTI and Trulieve will have billions in annual sales in a few years, yet their market caps are under $5B
S
@Shamanski I share your optimism, but am concerned that the MSOs will not be able to maintain pricing. Wholesale prices in mature markets continues to sink.
Shamanski profile picture
@Spiritus fermenti
wholesaling is not a good biz IMO. That's why I don't like cresco. Eventually all the MSOs will scale their production and not need wholesale. That won't hurt trulieve or GTI. The cost to grow dope is very low at scale and they make great profits on it.
b
@Shamanski Branding matters, Cresco is known for having very high quality products and people will want it. MSOs don't and won't only sell their own brands. In addition Cresco itself has over 40 dispensaries. Win-win
+40% or 400% banking issues need to resolved...till then.....
M
Dead money…?
Duncan20903 profile picture
@Maverick 2021 ...until further notice without doubt.
N
@Maverick 2021 Do you think it's dead money if the profitable companies continue to grow revenues 50-100% Y/Y, increasing to their balance sheets as they continue to build cash reserves? The longer companies like GTI, TRUE and Verano remain depressed, while they continue to greater net incomes, the better the investment they are.....for the others that haven't demonstrated profitability, well.....that's the 60 million dollar question, isn't?
b
Just more opportunity to keep adding to our positions! I don’t mind waiting for Wall Street to catch up.
U
UCF
06 Jan. 2022
its not just MSOs that are tanking, NASDAQ listed ancillary companies are getting crushed too, things like GRWG,GNLN,MAPS.... The only thing that's getting an investment is IIPR (still well off it's highs), which is trading at a ridiculous valuation.
j
@UCF Mrmd is doing fine and still undervalued
t
IIP is a REIT. If you understand how to value those, you’ll understand it is in fact not ridiculously valued.
d
Very strong growth in the cannabis sector continues! The large MSOS are positioned to grow dramatically in 2022 regardless of any federal legislation.
D
@dr ramon Yet 95% of the companies in this sector continue to lose money. Vast majority at, or near, their 52 week lows, with further room to go lower.

I'm done drinking the cool-aid - liquidated many of my positions while continuing to hold a few bags (the lessor bads of the bads) in the faint hope they'll recover to where I started. Assuming I ever do see that, it is going to be some time.
d
@Davy_L All the major tech companies and pharma companies started out losing money but continued to gain market share. Then they exploded to the upside. The cannabis market is brand new but 68% of Americans want cannabis legalized and most of the states are getting on board rapidly. The large MSOS are killing it in growth in revenues and earnings- even without federal legislation. Patience grasshopper!
Lawrence Dickman profile picture
@Davy_L
You keeping the cleanest shirts in the dirty laundry? 😁
h
That's quite a jump! And also good news for WeedMaps Technology (MAPS)
M
@harmjano2 thanks for your comment, what good news?
porter_t_dog profile picture
Wow, people like weed. Whoda thunkit?
d
@porter_t_dog plants over chemicals. Whoda thunk that?

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