Preliminary survey shows OPEC compliance increasing, now 132%

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• The first OPEC production survey for January is out, with Reuters indicating that OPEC production compliance increased to 132% in January up from 127% in December and 114% in November.
• The survey indicated that total OPEC volumes rose 210kb/d in January, this compares to a budgeted increase of 254kb/d for the "OPEC 10" and 400kb/d for OPEC+.
• The survey points to higher volumes from Saudi and lower volumes from Iraq (NYSE:CVX) (NYSE:XOM) and Libya (NYSE:TTE), with Iraq being noteworthy given recent production levels above the Country's allocated quota.
• Outside of OPEC, it was reported over the weekend that Russian volumes increased 85kb/d, an improvement from flat production in December; though the quota for Russia called for a 100kb/d increase, indicating that the country is falling further behind its targets.
• OPEC+ has held steadfast to the pace of production quota increases, regardless of oil prices (NYSEARCA:USO) or the cartel's ability to hit prior budgets - when OPEC meets this Wednesday, it's likely they increase the production cap by 400kb/d for March.

Comments

[Druncle Joe]

Years of no investment and shut ins from covid making it harder to raise production. Announcing intentions isn't worth much

[SelmaPete]

@Druncle Joe very true...46 exploration and production companies and 61 oil-field service companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last year, according to Haynes and Boone, a Dallas law firm tracking bankruptcies. The 107 oil and gas bankruptcies in 2020 were the most since 142 bankruptcies were filed during the last oil bust in 2016.

[TEX1961]

So is OPEC reaching capacity? Will they need more wells to reach these new quotas? I am wondering if the estimates have been skewed for a more positive outlook and now we will see if they really can meet higher volumes. If it comes to pass that they can’t look out prices will skyrocket. Just food for thought.

[bigbenorr]

Big middle finger to brandon

[Mustang Mike]

@bigbenorr You don't like profits?

[bigbenorr]

@Mustang Mike What? Yeah I do, just saying OPEC giving the finger to brandon after he asked them for more oil.

[Mustang Mike]

@bigbenorr ok from that perspective i guess so.

[rockthemetals]

"The survey indicated that total OPEC volumes rose 210kb/d in January, this compares to a budgeted increase of 254kb/d for the "OPEC 10" and 400kb/d for OPEC+."
My math says 82.7% compliance for "OPEC 10" and 52.5% for "OPEC+." So the 400kb/d budgeted monthly increases are for optics and politics.
$million is how much spare capacity do they have left? 52.5% of what has been reported? Anyway, bullish for oil.

[cfgh]

As I’ve said before, I couldn’t hardly fail to disagree with you any less. That’s the opec way.

[edaskew]

105 bpd short. They're unable to make their quotas. They under invested in E&P, but because of that they're going to make even more money. Smart, when you think about it.

[BeneGesserit]

Never heard of 132% compliance. Where I come from, its called OPEC members only had the ability to meet 82% of budgeted increases.

[Rikki Tikki Tavi]

@DagnyTaggart Note the ever increasing effort of the media to misrepresent the facts.

[twfry]

Its not "compliance" geniuses

[nealric]

At this point, it’s looking like the “cap” is just theater.

[STONKMAN489]

oil shortage

[oilisgoingupsoon]

Iraq is near capacity...Reservoir pressures are near bubble point. Need Sea water injection ASAP or production must be curtailed

[Cheese Head]

@oilisgoingupsoon Insightful post, we used to argue that P* could go 5% below Pb without damage but suspect the field(s) you are talking about will not be seawater flooded until lots of damage done to RF.

[justpokingaround]

@oilisgoingupsoon where is your info from iraq reservoir pressures? also I guess there are a whole lot of different fields in Iraq from Basra to Kirkuk with very different maturity