Amazon Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline?
- Investors will be watching if Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) can maintain its recent strong financial performance when the company reports earnings on Feb. 3, 2021 for Q4 FY 2021.
- Analysts expect mixed results in 4Q21. EPS is expected to sink 74.9% Y/Y to $3.54, revenue is forecast to rise 9.6% Y/Y to $137.63B.
- Although revenue is expected to grow, it would mark the slowest pace of growth in at least the past 20 quarters. Amazon (AMZN) has posted rapid earnings and revenue growth over the past year as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated both the shift to online shopping and corporate demand for cloud computing services.
- According to NY Post, Amazon (AMZN) might announce Prime subscription price increase when it reports earnings tomorrow.
Earnings History:
- The stock fell 2% on the day following the release of Q3 FY 2021 earnings report in late October amid missing EPS and revenue estimates.
- Over the last 1 year, AMZN has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.
Factors to consider:
- Labor supply shortages and increased wage costs: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy in October warned that profitability would again take a hit in the fourth quarter “as the company would manage through labor supply shortages, increased wage costs, global supply chain issues, and increased freight and shipping costs
- 1Q22 Guidance: The company in its Q3 earnings report expected Q4 net sales to be between $130.0 billion and $140.0 billion below analyst estimates of $142.15B consensus. Analyst expects Q1 revenue of $120.73B.
Analyst opinion:
- Cleveland Research analyst Scott Bender boost his Q4 net sales growth estimate to up 12%, from 11%, consensus at up 10%, and the company's guidance to be up 4%-12%. Bender has a buy rating ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
- BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon lowers PT to $3,600 from $4,100 but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst is also reducing his FY22 EPS view to $42.99 from $65.04.
- Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 32 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 11 downward.
- Recent earnings Analysis from our contributors:Amazon Earnings Preview: Key Drivers To Watch ForAmazon: Lease Accounting Will Decide Market Reaction In Thursday's Earnings Release
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Comments (37)
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Andrew Crosby
03 Feb. 2022
At this price, e-commerce just has to exist. AWS is worth about the valuation of the whole company... I think 20*sales is reasonable for 40% growth for market leader and when most are above 10 and some over 40*sales.
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djc301
03 Feb. 2022
@Andrew Crosby yup. I also love twitch & prime offering.
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Brit Dave
03 Feb. 2022
Am I reading the ticker correctly (in UK and a few hours ahead) but AMZ down 6.5%?!! Have they released earnings - just cant see it!
ShermanMcCoy
03 Feb. 2022
@Brit Dave 9pm London.
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Multiple Winners in this Space
03 Feb. 2022
AWS is the a key - expect the marketplace revenues to be lower than expectations - however - a big key to watch is advertising revenues, these should show nice growth and a nice forward guidance.Amazon will guide lower on marketplace sales to be conservative - as we open up the economy a little bit more (less stay at home) and stimulus money goes away!Amazon is a great company - will be the biggest company in the world in the next 4-5 years (I’m thinking 2.5-3 trillion dollars).
Hudson Investments
03 Feb. 2022
@khlim115 I would be surprised if AMZN declared a split today.
Hudson Investments
03 Feb. 2022
I expect you will see levels to the higher level of the company’s stated range.
mikes425
02 Feb. 2022
Baseless speculation drives market action, not fundamentals. That's what threads like this prove. So far. Greed 'trumps' facts or rationality. So much total guesswork and zero basis in fact with most of these negative comments, isn't there.
mikes425
02 Feb. 2022
whats up with the negative spin on Earnings here.
Hudson Investments
03 Feb. 2022
@mikes425 Negative spin lowers expectations. Take a dose of that applied to a great company like AMZN and just a tepid earning’s report after the market can make the stock boom.
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MooneyMooney
02 Feb. 2022
amazon earnings may not live upto markets expectations tomorrow. Can see drop but doubt fb or influx like plunge
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ATLAtty
02 Feb. 2022
Important quarter for Jassy. The last 2 quarters since he took over have not gone well. He needs to show at some point that he can deliver like his predecessor otherwise people will wonder if he is more Balmer or Bezos.
Stefan Redlich
02 Feb. 2022
Given Facebook collapsed 20%, AMZN should be in for a 5%+ drop at least I reckon
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Randol33
02 Feb. 2022
@Stefan Redlich Its already down over 20% from its high. looks like another 10-15% drop from here should be about right.
mikes425
02 Feb. 2022
@Stefan Redlich What's the connection.
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Randol33
02 Feb. 2022
I am expecting a 5-10% pull back after earnings post. They will be a huge disappointment just like the last 4 qtrs have been.
mikes425
02 Feb. 2022
why
Illuminati Investments
02 Feb. 2022
Orangejulius
02 Feb. 2022
I'm not confident enough to add to my AMZN position ahead of earnings. If they pull back hard, I may add some, as this year is expected to be a nice return to steady growth.
Reading is never enough
02 Feb. 2022
Amazon is an amazing company….because it pays attention to its clients,
And to it’s shareholders.
Buy at the right price and keep it for a lifetime.
Relax
The market is in a dangerous path.because of our mistakes.
Amazon and all FAANGM are not a mistake ever.
And to it’s shareholders.
Buy at the right price and keep it for a lifetime.
Relax
The market is in a dangerous path.because of our mistakes.
Amazon and all FAANGM are not a mistake ever.
vooch
02 Feb. 2022
@Reading is never enough The only event that will save Amazon‘s share price is Jeff introducing the Hollywood Homewrecker to Elon Musk and returning to CEO role.
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A Serious Man
02 Feb. 2022
Yeah, fine. Show me the money not propaganda.
