Another day, another rally - WTI oil prices pass $90

Andrii Zorii/iStock via Getty Images

• With inventory levels in Cushing at multi-year, seasonally-adjusted lows, and prices for the US crude grade encroaching on seaborne levels, WTI (NYSEARCA:USO) traded above $90 for the first time since mid 2014.
• Currently global crude inventories are at unusually low levels, meaning supply increases from OPEC+ and US shale will need to meet post-pandemic demand growth, if oil prices are to remain at current levels.
• Unfortunately for consumers and oil-price bears, OPEC+ continues to miss quota while shale heavyweights like Conoco (NYSE:COP), Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have all budgeted for flat, portfolio-wide production growth in 2022.
• A rally in oil prices has driven strong energy-linked equity outperformance year to date, with the Energy Select Spiders (NYSEARCA:XLE) up 22% and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) down 6% so far; that said, the XLE has underperformed the market by almost 60% over the past three years.
• With oil moving towards what appears to be the consensus price of $100, all eyes shift to US shale names, and their plans for capex and production growth in 2022.

Comments

[jeeppo]

Democrats don’t respect Economics. They think the law of supply and demand are ignorable because their policies are enlightened and righteous .

The poor, whom the brain damaged one says he supports so fervently, are getting the brunt end of his supply killing decisions.

It’s not his fault, it’s all big oil.

Time for a takeover to solve the problems.

[Chancer]

This morning (Saturday) 2/5, Brent is $93.27 and WTI is $92.31.

If oil prices continue to increase at this rate, they will easily be over $100 before June.

[johnny inca]

Remember when oil when negative almost two years ago? Later this year we will get the opposite of that. Lord knows what it will look like. 200?

[nicholas__t01]

Sure seems like dodo Joe's efforts to eliminate fossil fuels is working. Inventories are down, he's begging middle eastern producers to increase production, restricting drilling in the US, increasing environmental regulations, canceling pipelines, inflation is rampant, gasoline prices are soaring, natural gas and electric prices are significantly higher, shipping costs are higher, etc. Where's Jimmy Carter when we need him?

On a positive note, I'm happily invested in the end-to-end oil and gas industry from E&P, pipelines, refining, engineering and service companies.

If only I could figure out the next industry dodo joe wants to destroy.

[twfry]

@nicholas__t01 He's actively working to destroy all industry

[crossledge]

@nicholas__t01 btc

[nicholas__t01]

@crossledge no idea what that means

[geneZ35]

Cushing at lower inventory levels? If only we could build a big pipeline to bring down some of that Canadian crude. Elections have consequences.

[DavidJL615]

Here we are in the fifth week of the quarter - energy stocks rocked with Q4 earnings - oil prices are significantly up so if this trend continues 1st quarter results will be beyond awesome

[Xempler]

Here's hoping Putin moves into Ukraine

[GuyRien1]

So how are people who bought upstreams in 2020 playing this? Taking profits or completely cashing out.

[Zach Nye]

@GuyRien1 I've seen a dozen or so of them post and it seems to be a mixed bag. 1 or 2 sold just about everything, a few more are letting it ride, and the balance are trimming.

[Mr FJ]

@GuyRien1 I'm still holding.
MRO, XOM, ET and BP

[ronjon1957]

@GuyRien1 I'm holding XOM, BP and PBR. When oil hits $115 I'll start trimming to get original investment out. Then let the rest ride collecting dividends., keeping a close watch on economy. That's my plan.

[woodland]

Oil prices much stronger and nearly all my oil holdings down. Hopefully see stocks head higher tomorrow.

[BubbaGump333]

@woodland yes, very disappointed to my O&G names down 1-2% while WTI climbs. Amazon gets the sniffles and the entire market catches cold.

[Rob634]

@BubbaGump333 seems like a lot of profit taking after then huge O&G rally earlier in the week. They're definitely going to continue heading higher. If the consensus among the big banks is $100 WTI it's probably going even higher.

[secorewb]

@BubbaGump333 how much did they go up yesterday

[edaskew]

YEEEE-Hah!!!! Here comes $100, baby!

[Zeke Hilgenflotsamflopsin]

RRC best shale play, hands down.

[jeeppo]

So who are the shale names? What does one look for ? I liked the article but it hardly informed future actions.

I am not sure public companies will pump the way the privates might on shale. So, What is the play?

[BubbaGump333]

@jeeppo EOG for the win.

[simonthecat]

@jeeppo easy, best performers will be MRO, DVN, APA, PXD and AR.

[JackWolf]

Self defeating increases since it makes the renewables sector even more attractive at their current beaten down prices.

[idontknowwhatimdoinghere]

@JackWolf No. Just the opposite. Renewables experienced years of bragging about their cost becoming cheaper and cheaper. Now they too are getting expensive very quickly. Why? Because what brought the price down was their input prices coming down specifically oil and electricity prices due to massive over drilling in the shale patches. Renewables are trash alone and rely on oil as much as everything else does. Poor idiotic tree huggers shouldn't have shut down all those nuclear projects in the 1970s people are going to find out that its oil makes all those windmills and solar panels possible and as electricity costs go through the roof are eventually question the need for the (non) renewable middleman. They are going do demand the return of nice cheap reliable coal.

[edaskew]

@JackWolf Suffer.

[CASH FLOW54]

@idontknowwhatimdoinghere You are still living in the past.

[BA Man]

The best cure for low oil prices is . . . . . Low oil prices.
Why, oh why, didn’t I triple my position in XOM instead of just doubling it while the prices were at generational low prices in 2020?
Thank you God for this current oil boom. I promise not to screw this one up.

[Doctor E]

Time has proven Cathie Wood right after all. Oil will never see $70 again.

[BA Man]

@Doctor E
Never is a long, long time!

[Morpheus1]

@Doctor E really though, it never will after oil rallies above $150, tanks the stock market and the Fed Unleashes QE Thanos.

[Rob634]

@Doctor E as long as China keeps their real estate issue contained and avoids a 2008 style crisis. They have enough cash to bail out systematically important firms I think, so oil demand won't be crashing anytime soon.

[Tag Team]

And yet natural gas goes down. I love how people talk about oil and gas as they are the same but when talking about financials they act completely independent.

[Cruising for a bruising]

@Tag Team nat gas trading = weather forecasting!

[idontknowwhatimdoinghere]

@Cruising for a bruising this

[jmartinp33]

@Tag Team I suspect the downward pressure on NG has to do with the proposal from the senate to outlaw exports. Don’t think this is a serious proposal