Henry Hub (NG1:COM) prices were up 10% Wednesday afternoon, supporting gas-linked ETFs, and capping a 21% run from early February lows, as cooler weather was forecast to sweep across much of the Western US.
The supply picture is unlikely to be altered by the cooler weather; however, an earnings report from Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK) Tuesday indicated 25% higher capex in 2022 would only drive 6% production growth, perhaps leading some analysts to speculate the medium-term supply picture is a bit more restricted than previously thought.
An updated inventory report from the EIA Thursday is likely to provide additional detail on real-time supply / demand dynamics, as US inventories have fallen slightly below the 5yr average following extreme cold weather earlier in the month.
Tudor Pickering said Wednesday that "following recent strength in residential/commercial demand and continued solid power generation demand as supplies remained constrained, it’s tough to see too much downside to the 2022 forward curve."
With E&P earnings on deck, gas analysts will be focused on capex and production trends from producers like Southwestern (NYSE:SWN), Chesapeake (NASDAQ:CHK) and Range (NYSE:RRC), following disappointing results from EQT (NYSE:EQT).