Why did Bumble stock tumble today? Russia war brings headwinds

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There's a bit of colony collapse going on in Bumble stock (NASDAQ:BMBL), which slid 16.5% Thursday to all-time lows just days ahead of the dating-service company's fourth-quarter earnings.

Volume had tripled its usual daily average shortly before the close, with 5.22 million shares and counting having moved.

Thursday's Bumble tumble marked an accelerated decline for a stock that had already fallen more than 12% over the previous five sessions - and it's likely the Russia-Ukraine conflict is playing a part, with Bumble's exposure to the region including both countries.

Investor sentiment was already more cautionary over the past couple of months, but "the Russia/Ukraine war does not help given Badoo’s exposure to the region," says Evercore ISI, which estimates about $20 million-$25 million in "revenue from that region for Badoo that could face some headwinds."

Still, Evercore says the pullback of 24% since Feb. 1 "seems aggressive," and it has a target price of $50, now implying 159% upside from a current $19.30.

J.P. Morgan pins the recent drop firmly on Russia, saying that Russia and Ukraine may account for 3-4% of Bumble revenue.

“There are still many unknowns — most notably what the disruption could be to Russian payments — but we certainly expect Bumble’s Russia exposure to weigh on its 2022 guide,” the firm's Cory Carpenter writes.

Bumble's set to report earnings on Tuesday, March 8 - and consensus expectations are for revenue growth of nearly 27%, to $209.9 million - though earnings per share estimates range from -$0.02 to $0.19.