There's a 10% chance of a nuclear apocalypse in the next year, one research firm says

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If Vladimir Putin comes to the conclusion that he has no future he may well decide nobody else should have a future either, BCA Research says.

"Although there is a huge margin of error around any estimate, subjectively, we would assign an uncomfortably high 10% chance of a civilization-ending global nuclear war over the next 12 months," the Montreal-based independent research provider wrote in a note.

"Even if World War III is ultimately averted, markets could experience a freak-out moment over the next few weeks, similar to what happened at the outset of the pandemic," BCA added. "Google searches for nuclear war are already spiking." (See their graphic below.)

"Despite the risk of nuclear war, it makes sense to stay constructive on stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY) (NASDAQ:QQQ) over the next 12 months," the team said. "If an ICBM is heading your way, the size and composition of your portfolio becomes irrelevant."

"Thus, from a purely financial perspective, you should largely ignore existential risk, even if you do care about it greatly from a personal perspective."

Michael Every, strategist at RaboResearch, pointed out a tweet featuring the BCA note and said that logically, "the only way Putin can now achieve anything lasting is via further brinksmanship."

"Only at the edge of the global cliff might Russia see the West blink and give him his new empire," Every said in a note.

"Escalation is also inevitable in the economic war," he added.

The Kremlin said today it would be willing to halt operations if its conditions were met.