Rivian Automotive is in the spotlight with earnings day approaching

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN +1.8%) is catching quite a bit of attention ahead of the company's earnings report on March 10.

Barclays reiterated Rivian with an Equal Weight rating, while lowering its price target to $47 from $115.

The firm warned on more pressure on Rivian due to cost inflation and production ramp.

"The optimist in us is hopeful for a relief rally once expectations are properly reset, but the pessimist in us tells us there’s more pain to come as consensus falls closer to our revised sales and margin forecasts."

Mizuho Americas also called out challenges with Rivian's production ramp, supply chain and pricing quandary in the near term.

"While the auto market is seeing multiple challenges globally, we take a look at RIVN investor concerns heading into earnings, including: 1) we believe consensus expectations of ~350 R1 Truck production/deliveries per week and ~400+ Amazon Delivery vehicle/qtr could LIKELY be challenging near-term, 2) Some recent disruptions with pricing, and supply chain and logistics headwinds."

The analyst team kept a Buy rating on RIVN on its view that the EV startup will be an eventual leader and pure-play in the fast-growing market.

Shares of Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are down 59% year-to-date and are off 77% from their post-IPO high. The company is one of the EV players facing a commodities pressure cooker.

Dig in further with Livy Investment Research's breakdown on if Rivian can rebound to +$100.

Comments

[Tileman78]

The only thing going for RIVN is the Motor Trend Truck of the year award

[truwa]

What earnings?

70K pre-orders have to be sold massively "under cost". The more Rivian sells, the bigger will be the losses. We can calculate just how much it is losing per vehicle in a couple of quarters. My guess is that it will be around $30K for pre-ordered sales.

[purrpullberra]

Nothing has changed materially. But the PT drops from 115 to 47 and it's still somehow a buy?!
There's no assurance they'll ever make 20k trucks and SUVs ever.
Amazon will demand they get their vans and Rivian is unable to build and generate profit. Costs for R1T&S are skyrocketing.

And no one talks about the missing LiDAR tech that they promised. They're leaving off a couple grand in LiDAR units alone... does their eventual self driving tech have any chance without it?

And a lawsuit about the bait and switch they tried to pull. So much bad will generated.
Rivian is hanging on by a thread.

[ndbbm]

I get a feeling the earnings day is going to be a dumpster fire.

[Chris Lau]

RIVN needs to impress. AMZN F depend on it.

[Zeusy Zeus]

@Chris Lau Rivian is fine man it’s easy to kick something down when it’s struggling. Everything is bad now Amazon and investors should know this. Easy to sell hard to buy and hold but that’s what gives the best returns. Anyone can buy stocks trending up a 90 year old lady could do that. Amazon knows they’re doing the best they can to prioritize their vehicles that’s why they’re expanding. Hopefully they can get the plant in UK up in running in a few years too that would be amazing for them.

[purrpullberra]

@Zeusy Zeus Amazon getting what they demand is not necessarily a positive for their Rivian vehicle biz.
In a world with scarce chips and battery raw material Rivian will have to allocate to placate Amazon before ramping customer trucks.

[Zeusy Zeus]

@purrpullberra True but with the sourcing and methods Amazon has I wouldn't be surprised if they help rivian with supply issues. Maybe im just an optimist.

[Wez]

Love the chart of this pig, it looks like a side view of a black diamond ski slope...

[SqueakyToy]

@Wez RIVN management timed the cash grab perfectly.